投資週記 10 May, 2025 每週市場更新
投資週記 10 May, 2025 每週市場更新
*本網頁屬個人博客，一切言論純粹是表達本人的個人意見或經驗分享，無論在任何情況下，不應被視為投資建議，也不構成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦， 本人亦無法保證部落格內容的真實性和完整性。 讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行求證和分析, 讀者一切的投資決定以及該投資決定引致的收益或損失，概與本人無涉。
Executive Summary: Wall Street Ends Week Lower Amid Tariff Tensions and Policy Uncertainty
This week, U.S. equity markets saw a narrow but volatile range as global investors digested rising trade tensions, hawkish Fed rhetoric, and conflicting economic signals. All three major indexes posted weekly declines, snapping a two-week winning streak.
Dow Jones fell 119.07 points on Friday, down 0.2% for the week.
S&P 500 dipped 0.07% Friday, weekly down 0.4%.
Nasdaq Composite was flat Friday but slipped 0.3% on the week.
The key overhang was the uncertainty surrounding U.S.–China tariffs, following President Trump’s remark that an 80% tariff on Chinese goods is “reasonable”, a retreat from the 145% rate but still far above global norms. This rhetoric has triggered volatility, especially in multinational and trade-dependent sectors.
Market Drivers and Macro Highlights
1. Trade & Tariffs: Tariff Policy Enters Election Arena
The new 80% tariff baseline proposed by Trump appears to be his negotiation floor, with the UK-U.S. trade pact(10% vehicle import cap) potentially serving as a template for Japan, Korea, and the EU.
MarineTraffic data confirms that over 12,000 Chinese containers are already being taxed under new U.S. import duties, directly impacting major retailers like Amazon, IKEA, and Ralph Lauren.
Barclays and GS both warn that until a clear tariff framework emerges, the market will remain valuation-constrained, especially in trade-sensitive industries.
2. Federal Reserve Messaging: Inflation Expectations Front and Center
NY Fed President Williams emphasized the need to stabilize inflation expectations, even as he acknowledged a possible slowdown in economic growth.
Kevin Warsh, a potential next Fed Chair, criticized the Fed for losing credibility, stating that if inflation persists due to tariffs, it’s “on the Fed”.
10-year Treasury yield rose 5.3 bps on the week to 4.375%, reflecting lingering inflation fears and market positioning for sustained rate levels.
3. Earnings & Corporate Action Highlights
Tesla (+3.85%), Amazon (+1.62%), and Nvidia (+1.88%) led gains among the Magnificent 7, while Apple (-3.32%) and Google (-6.88%) faced significant pressure.
Coinbase dropped nearly 3.5% after disappointing earnings.
Lyft surged 28% after surprising with a profitable quarter.
TSMC's April revenue surged 48.1% YoY, as companies stockpiled semiconductors ahead of tariff escalation. However, NT dollar strength could compress future margins.
4. Global Trade & Diplomacy
UK–US deal: A 10% tariff cap and a 100,000-vehicle/year limit for UK auto exports is seen as the Trump-era benchmark.
India, rather than Japan or Korea, may be next to reach a trade compromise with the U.S., per trade advisor Lutnick.
Talks with Japan and Korea are expected to take longer, adding to Asia-Pacific market uncertainty.
Alternative Assets
Bitcoin rose 6.1% this week, trading above $102,900, signaling renewed risk appetite among retail investors.
Gold climbed 3.1% to $3,344/oz, benefiting from geopolitical hedging.
Oil (WTI) gained 4.7% to $61.02/barrel, driven by strong demand signals and fears of supply chain disruptions from tariffs.
Goldman Sachs View: Navigating an Era of Strategic Volatility
We maintain a defensive-to-neutral stance across asset classes amid growing macro risks:
Equity Strategy
We see ~20% downside risk to equities should recession materialize (S&P downside target: 4600).
Buy quality: Defensive growth names with pricing power (e.g., healthcare, defense, essential tech).
Stay underweight trade-exposed sectors (retail, discretionary).
Avoid chasing rebound rallies—institutions are staying on the sidelines, with retail investors driving most flows.
Fixed Income
We recommend increased exposure to short-duration U.S. Treasuries as a hedge against macro shocks and policy surprises.
Stay flexible in duration as rate expectations remain volatile.
Commodities & Alternatives
Gold remains a strong hedge against policy missteps.
Bitcoin's rise reflects speculative appetite but remains high-risk.
Oil may face headwinds if global demand slows due to escalating trade frictions.
Currency
Dollar strength remains supported by safe-haven demand and relative U.S. resilience.
NTD strength pressures exporters like TSMC—hedging strategies are advised for Asia-focused portfolios.
Key Risks to Monitor
Escalation or retaliation in China–U.S. trade war.
Breakdown in U.S. debt ceiling talks before August deadline (Treasury Sec. Bessent warns of cash exhaustion).
Further hawkish surprise from Fed or major central banks.
Decline in consumer sentiment or corporate earnings amid margin pressure.
Goldman Sachs Investment Outlook: Tactical, Not Passive
In an environment marked by geopolitical friction, fiscal brinkmanship, and monetary fatigue, we recommend agile positioning, active management, and capital preservation strategies over passive beta exposure. Watch the Trump tariff narrative as a dominant macro driver through the summer.
摘要：關稅緊張局勢和政策不確定性導致華爾街本週收盤走低
本週，由於全球投資者消化了不斷加劇的貿易緊張局勢、聯準會的強硬言論以及相互矛盾的經濟訊號，美國股市呈現窄幅波動。三大股指均出現週度下跌，連續兩週的上漲動能戛然而止。
道瓊指數週五下跌119.07點，本週下跌0.2%。
標普 500 指數週五下跌 0.07%，週度下跌 0.4%。
那斯達克指數週五持平，但本週下跌 0.3%。
主要的懸念是圍繞中美關稅的不確定性，此前川普總統表示，對中國商品徵收 80% 的關稅是“合理的”，雖然低於 145% 的稅率，但仍遠高於全球標準。這種言論引發了動盪，尤其是在跨國公司和依賴貿易的行業。
市場驅動因素和宏觀亮點
1. 貿易與關稅：關稅政策進入選舉舞台
川普提出的新的 80% 關稅基準似乎是他與英美談判的底線。貿易協定（10% 的汽車進口上限）可能成為日本、韓國和歐盟的模板。
MarineTraffic 數據證實，根據美國新的進口關稅，超過 12,000 個中國貨櫃已被徵稅，直接影響到亞馬遜、宜家和拉爾夫勞倫等主要零售商。
巴克萊和高盛均警告稱，在明確的關稅框架出現之前，市場仍將受到估值制約，尤其是在貿易敏感型產業。
2. 聯準會傳遞的訊息：通膨預期成為焦點
紐約聯邦儲備銀行主席威廉斯強調穩定通膨預期的必要性，儘管他承認經濟成長可能放緩。
下一任聯準會主席的潛在候選人凱文沃什 (Kevin Warsh) 批評聯準會喪失信譽，並表示如果通膨因關稅而持續存在，那麼「責任就在聯準會身上」。
10 年期美國公債殖利率本週上漲 5.3 個基點，至 4.375%，反映出揮之不去的通膨擔憂和市場對持續利率水準的定位。
3. 獲利及公司行動亮點
特斯拉（+3.85%）、亞馬遜（+1.62%）和英偉達（+1.88%）在七大科技公司中領漲，而蘋果（-3.32%）和谷歌（-6.88%）則面臨巨大壓力。
Coinbase 的獲利令人失望，股價下跌近 3.5%。
Lyft 本季意外獲利，股價飆漲 28%。
由於各企業在關稅上調前囤積半導體，台積電 4 月營收年增 48.1%。然而，新台幣的強勢可能會壓縮未來的利潤率。
4. 全球貿易與外交
英美協議：10%的關稅上限和英國汽車出口每年10萬輛的限制被視為川普時代的基準。
貿易顧問盧特尼克表示，下一個與美國達成貿易妥協的國家可能是印度，而不是日本或韓國。
預計與日本和韓國的談判將需要更長時間，這將增加亞太市場的不確定性。
另類資產
比特幣本週上漲 6.1%，交易價格突破 102,900 美元，顯示散戶投資者的風險偏好重燃。
受地緣政治對沖影響，金價上漲 3.1% 至每盎司 3,344 美元。
受強勁的需求訊號和對關稅導致供應鏈中斷的擔憂推動，石油（WTI）價格上漲 4.7% 至每桶 61.02 美元。
高盛觀點：因應策略動盪時代
在宏觀風險不斷上升的背景下，我們對各資產類別維持防禦至中性的立場：
股票策略
一旦經濟衰退成為現實，我們認為股市下行風險約為 20%（標準普爾下行目標：4,600）。
買入優質股票：具有定價權的防禦性成長股（例如醫療保健、國防、關鍵技術）。
維持低配貿易相關產業（零售、非必需消費品）。
避免追逐反彈－機構保持觀望，散戶推動了大部分資金流動。
固定收益
我們建議增加短期美國國債的投資，以對沖宏觀衝擊和政策意外。
由於利率預期持續波動，因此應保持期限的靈活性。
大宗商品與替代品
黃金仍然是規避政策失誤的強大對沖工具。
比特幣的上漲反映了投機慾望，但風險仍然很高。
如果貿易摩擦升級導致全球需求放緩，石油可能會面臨阻力。
貨幣
美元的強勢仍然受到避險需求和美國相對韌性的支撐。
新台幣走強給台積電等出口商帶來壓力－建議針對以亞洲為重點的投資組合採取避險策略。
需要監控的關鍵風險
中美關係升級或報復貿易戰。
美國債務上限談判在 8 月最後期限前破裂（財政部長貝森特警告現金枯竭）。
聯準會或主要央行進一步出人意料地採取強硬立場。
利潤率壓力導致消費者信心或企業獲利下降。
高盛投資展望：戰術性而非被動性
在地緣政治摩擦、財政邊緣政策和貨幣疲勞的環境下，我們建議採取靈活定位、積極管理和資本保全策略，而不是被動的貝塔曝險。關注川普關稅言論，它將成為整個夏季主要的宏觀驅動因素。