投資週記 2025 年 1 月 25 日 每週市場更新
投資週記 2025 年 1 月 25 日 每週市場更新
Disclaimer: The information provided here is intended for general knowledge and informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on your specific financial situation and needs, and after consultation with a qualified financial advisor.
Weekly Market Update: A Bullish Week
l 道瓊斯指數 跌140.82點或0.32%，報44,424.25點。總結一周，道指升2.15%。
l 標普500指數 跌17.47點或0.29%，報6,101.24點。本星期升1.74%。
l 納斯達克指數 跌99.38點或0.50%，報19,954.30點。全周升1.65%。
l 紐約3月期油 收報74.66美元一桶，升0.04美元或0.1%。一星期跌3.5%。美國總統特朗普周五再次呼籲石油輸出國組織降低油價，油組回應稱，早前已計劃在今年4月起逐步增產。
l 紐約2月期金 收報2,778.9元一盎司，升13.9美元或0.5%。現貨黃金全周累升近3%。
l 比特幣 截至美東時間下午4時半報105,320.91美元，升2,105.41美元或2.04%。
l 美國10年期國債息率 收報4.626厘，跌1.2點子。
In the week ending January 25, 2025, U.S. equity markets exhibited notable strength, with major indices reaching new highs.
Major Indices Performance:
S&P 500: The index advanced approximately 2.9% for the week, achieving a record close.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Dow led the major indices with a significant gain, contributing to the overall market rally.
Nasdaq Composite: The tech-heavy Nasdaq also posted substantial gains, reflecting investor optimism in the technology sector.
Key Drivers Behind the Changes:
Corporate Earnings: Strong fourth-quarter earnings reports from major corporations bolstered investor confidence. Companies across various sectors reported better-than-expected results, contributing to the positive market sentiment.
YAHOO FINANCE
Economic Data: Recent data indicated a moderation in inflation coupled with robust employment growth. These factors have led to discussions about potential adjustments in monetary policy.
FINANCIAL TIMES
Geopolitical Events: Investors reacted positively to the inauguration of President Donald Trump, anticipating policies favoring deregulation and economic expansion. Additionally, an executive order on digital assets provided a boost to the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin prices hovering around $105,000.
WSJ
Sector Performance Highlights and Significant Stock Movements:
Technology: The sector experienced significant gains, driven by major investments in AI infrastructure announced by leading tech companies. Notably, firms like Oracle, Nvidia, and Arm saw substantial stock appreciation.
WSJ
Consumer Discretionary: Lululemon Athletica's stock rebounded after the company raised its earnings and revenue guidance, signaling strong consumer demand.
BARRON'S
Energy: Despite the overall market rally, energy ETFs declined, reflecting a decrease in crude oil prices during the week.
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Updates on Global Financial Markets:
Europe: European equity funds attracted substantial investments, with net inflows of $6.69 billion. The STOXX 600 index reached a record high, indicating strong investor confidence in the region.
REUTERS.COM
Asia: Asian markets also performed well, with equity funds receiving $2.84 billion in inflows. Investors are optimistic about the region's economic prospects, particularly in technology and manufacturing sectors.
REUTERS.COM
Key Global Developments Impacting Financial Markets:
Economic Data: The latest economic indicators presented a mixed picture. While certain metrics suggested continued economic expansion, others indicated potential headwinds. Investors are closely monitoring these developments in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's policy decisions.
Corporate Earnings: The earnings season commenced with a blend of positive and negative surprises. Notably, some major corporations reported earnings that surpassed expectations, while others fell short, contributing to market volatility.
Geopolitical Events: At the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Donald Trump advocated for reductions in interest rates and oil prices, while cautioning global business leaders about potential tariffs on products manufactured outside the U.S. These statements have introduced additional considerations for investors evaluating international exposure.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink predicts a high likelihood of interest rate hikes in the US over the next 12 months. He cites strong economic performance in Q4 and robust business activity in Q1, as reported by various companies. Fink anticipates that the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates again after a period of short-term easing. However, he also notes that there is room for rate cuts in the short term, with upcoming economic data playing a crucial role in determining the course of action.
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) preliminary data shows that the US Composite Output Index fell to 52.4 in January from 55.4 in December, marking a nine-month low. This indicates continued growth in business activity, albeit at a slower pace compared to December's 32-month high. The services sector growth has slowed, with the Business Activity Index dropping from 56.8 in December to 52.8 in January. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector has returned to growth for the first time in six months, with the Manufacturing PMI rising from 49.4 in December to 50.1 in January, signaling a slight improvement in business conditions. The Manufacturing Output Index also increased from 47.7 in December to 50.2 in January, reaching a six-month high.
According to a University of Michigan survey, the final Consumer Sentiment Index for January fell to 71.1 from 74 in December, hitting a three-month low. Concerns about unemployment and the potential impact of tariffs on inflation contributed to this decline. Additionally, the one-year inflation expectation was confirmed at 3.3%, an eight-month high, up from 2.8% in December.
3. Insights and Market Forecasts:
Our proprietary analysis indicates that while the U.S. economy continues to demonstrate resilience, certain sectors may encounter challenges due to evolving economic indicators and policy shifts. We anticipate that the Federal Reserve's forthcoming decisions will play a pivotal role in shaping market trajectories in the near term.
4. Sector Analysis and Investment Recommendations:
Technology: Despite recent volatility, the technology sector remains a cornerstone of innovation and growth. We recommend maintaining a strategic allocation to high-quality tech companies with robust balance sheets and strong earnings potential.
Consumer Discretionary: Companies such as Lululemon Athletica have demonstrated resilience, with recent earnings reports indicating positive momentum. Selective exposure to this sector may offer attractive opportunities.
Energy: Given the current discourse on oil prices and potential policy interventions, we advise a cautious approach to the energy sector, emphasizing investments in companies with diversified operations and a focus on sustainable energy solutions.