投資週記 2025年6月6日 每週市場更新
投資週記 2025年6月6日 每週市場更新
免責聲明：網頁屬個人博客，一切言論純粹是表達本人的個人意見或經驗分享，無論在任何情況下，不應被視為投資建議，也不構成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦， 本人亦無法保證部落格內容的真實性和完整性。 讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行求證和分析, 讀者一切的投資決定以及該投資決定引致的收益或損失，概與本人無涉。
📰 一週焦點摘要
本週美股氣氛改善，三大指數齊升，標普500指數重回6,000點，創2月以來新高。美國就業數據溫和、中美即將恢復貿易談判，均提振市場信心。
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美國5月非農新增就業13.9萬人（預期為13萬），失業率維持4.2%，符合預期。
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中美貿易談判將於下週一在倫敦重啟，市場期待緩解摩擦。
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科技股領漲，Tesla反彈超過4%，亞馬遜與Alphabet分別升近3%與超過3%。
📊 市場表現一覽
指數/資產 |
本週收市價 |
漲跌幅 |
周漲幅 |
|---|---|---|---|
道瓊斯 |
42,762.87 |
+443.13點 (+1.05%) |
+1.17% |
標普500 |
6,000.36 |
+61.06點 (+1.03%) |
+1.50% |
納斯達克 |
19,529.95 |
+231.50點 (+1.20%) |
+2.18% |
WTI 原油（7月期油） |
$64.58/桶 |
+$1.21 (+0.9%) |
+6.2% |
黃金（8月期金） |
$3,346.60/盎司 |
-$28.50 (-0.8%) |
+1.8% |
比特幣 |
$104,328.27 |
+$2,392.38 (+2.35%) |
-0.22% |
美10年期債息 |
4.510% |
+11.6基點 |
+9.4基點 |
🔍 市場觀察與風險提示
📈 市場過熱警訊？
美銀策略師 Michael Hartnett 警告，全球股市在過去兩個月內急升約20%，恐觸發技術性回調。他指出：
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若股票資金流入佔資產超過1%，將觸發賣出訊號（目前為0.9%）。
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目前有84%國家股指高於50日與200日平均線，若達88%，同樣視為過熱信號。
💥 美中貿易局勢仍存變數
儘管下週展開談判，但雙方舉措矛盾：
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中國恢復接收波音訂單
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美國暫停對華出口核電設備
此外，特朗普將鋼鋁進口關稅從25%升至50%，引發產業廣泛成本上升，波及汽車、飛機、基建等多個領域。BCG估計，美國企業進口成本將增至逾1,000億美元。
🧨 政策風險：美國資本流動新戰線？
新通過的《大而美法案》第899條款將對「稅制不公平國」課徵報復性稅項，引發華爾街憂慮：
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對非美資金的利息、股息、租金徵稅（最高達20%）
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對非美國人滙出資金徵收3.5%稅率
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被視為軟性資本管制的開端，可能嚇退外資
《經濟學人》指出，這是保護主義從商品貿易延伸至資本流動，潛在破壞力更甚關稅。
🗣️ 特朗普 vs 馬斯克：政治衝突擴至商界
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馬斯克與特朗普關係破裂，傳言將通話被否認
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特朗普考慮退還其年初支持Tesla購買的紅色Model S
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白宮透露，兩人短期內不會恢復溝通
《紐約時報》形容兩人角力如「哥斯拉大戰金剛」，科技與政治兩大強勢人物正面交鋒。
✅ 本週
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經濟數據穩健 + 貿易談判重啟 → 市場信心上升
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三大指數同步創階段新高
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資金持續湧入股市與高收益債，惟過熱警訊浮現
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政策面充滿變數，投資者宜保持警覺與風險控管
拒絕核能設備出口
鋼鋁進口稅加倍至50%
Clause 899 對外資徵稅被視為資本限制初步信號
🔍 关键市场动态与风险因素
1. 通胀与利率：市场已提前消化通胀反弹
尽管近期通胀数据温和，但高盛预测，关税实施可能导致核心PCE从目前的2.5%升至年底的3.6%。然而，市场似乎已将此视为一次性事件，5年远期通胀盈亏平衡点自2022年春季以来一直保持在稳定的区间内，表明市场对长期通胀复苏的担忧有限。
2. 债务可持续性与美债收益率
美国30年期国债收益率虽在过去几周有所缓和，但仍处于高位。高盛认为，市场可能会在每个长期国债拍卖周期中继续保持高度警惕。此外，若10年期美债收益率在一个月内上涨约60个基点达到4.75-4.80%，股市可能面临重大压力。
3. 美元与美债的背离
美元面临的一个核心挑战是：在一系列估值模型中，它仍然相当昂贵。这可能解释了为何美国30年期实际利率与美元走势之间出现了分化。此外，特朗普的关税政策和财政赤字的扩大也对美元构成压力。
4. 科技巨头主导盈利增长
全球科技公司相比非科技公司展现出卓越的盈利增长。特别是Mag7（美股七大科技巨头）相比其他493家公司的盈利增长更为突出。科技巨头们在ChatGPT出现后资本支出出现显著变化，市场共识预期这种增长将持续。
5. 国防与核能板块的爆发性表现
全球国防股表现尤为突出，高盛韩国国防股票篮子今年迄今上涨127%，欧洲和日本国防股同样表现强劲。与此同时，由20只全球股票组成的铀/核电主题投资篮子也呈现出令人瞩目的上涨趋势。
✅ 總結
美股創新高，AI及大型科技股持續領漲
經濟數據支持市場氣氛，但估值偏高
貿易與政策面仍存不確定性，建議投資人謹慎因應
📌 投資組合調整建議（高盛策略）
🔄 1. 高位獲利了結 如持有NVIDIA、Meta或Broadcom等近期飆升股，可考慮獲利回吐5–10%，降低估值風險，但仍維持核心曝險。
💡 2. 轉向優質成長股 配置至基本面穩健、估值合理但較少關注的成長股，如：
Adobe（ADBE）：AI創意應用驅動增長
ServiceNow（NOW）：企業自動化及AI工作流平台
Cisco（CSCO）：AI基建受惠、估值吸引
🛡️ 3. 加入避險工具 若科技權重較高，可使用QQQ或XLK買權對沖風險。亦可考慮基建或股息型ETF如VGT、DGRO平衡配置。
📥 4. 保持現金彈性 預留10–15%現金或短債ETF，用於市場修正時伺機進場。
🔍 5. 關注即將到來的催化劑
6月12日聯儲會議：利率政策展望
AI相關企業財報季：Apple、NVIDIA、AMD等
中美談判進展及Clause 899後續細則
🧭 投資展望
時間範圍 策略 原因 1–2週 謹慎防守 高估值環境，獲利了結、科技避險 1–3個月 中性偏多 AI驅動勢頭持續，估值偏貴需審慎 6–12個月 積極看多 科技及AI核心板塊業績強勁，仍處早期週期
Deep Analysis of Adobe (ADBE), ServiceNow (NOW), and Cisco (CSCO): High Growth Potential and Buy Prices
This analysis evaluates Adobe (ADBE), ServiceNow (NOW), and Cisco (CSCO) as potential high-growth investments, inspired by Peter Lynch’s principles. Lynch, a legendary investor, emphasized buying companies you understand, with strong earnings growth (20–25% annually for growth stocks), reasonable valuations (P/E ratios aligned with growth rates, ideally PEG < 1), and competitive advantages in expanding industries. We’ll examine the last 10 years of financial reports, current business trends (focusing on AI tools, digital workflows, and AI infrastructure), and assess growth potential and reasonable buy prices as of June 7, 2025.
Peter Lynch’s Key Principles
Know the Company: Invest in businesses with clear, understandable models and growth drivers.
Earnings Growth: Seek consistent, strong earnings growth (20–25% for growth stocks, or “fast growers”).
PEG Ratio: Price-to-earnings (P/E) divided by earnings growth rate; aim for PEG < 1 for value relative to growth.
Competitive Moat: Look for durable advantages (brand, technology, market share) in growing industries.
Financial Strength: Strong balance sheets, manageable debt, and solid cash flow support growth.
1. Adobe (ADBE): Benefiting from AI Tool Integration
Financial Performance (2015–2024)
Data sourced from MacroTrends.
Year | Revenue ($B) | Net Income ($B) | EPS (Diluted) ($) | Shares Outstanding (M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 4.796 | 0.629 | 1.24 | 506 |
2016 | 5.854 | 1.169 | 2.32 | 504 |
2017 | 7.302 | 1.694 | 3.38 | 501 |
2018 | 9.030 | 2.591 | 5.20 | 498 |
2019 | 11.171 | 2.951 | 6.00 | 492 |
2020 | 12.868 | 5.260 | 10.83 | 485 |
2021 | 15.785 | 4.822 | 10.02 | 481 |
2022 | 17.606 | 4.756 | 10.10 | 471 |
2023 | 19.409 | 5.428 | 11.82 | 459 |
2024 | 20.429 | 5.121 | 11.80 | 434 |
Revenue Growth: From $4.796B to $20.429B, a CAGR of 17.5%. Growth driven by subscription-based Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud.
Net Income Growth: From $0.629B to $5.121B, a CAGR of 23.3%, reflecting strong profitability despite a slight 2024 dip.
EPS Growth: From $1.24 to $11.80, a CAGR of 28.5%, fueled by earnings growth and share repurchasing.
Balance Sheet: Low debt-to-equity ratio (~0.3 in 2024), strong cash flow ($7.3B in 2024 operating cash flow).
2025 Business and AI Integration
AI Tools: Adobe has integrated AI via Adobe Firefly and Sensei, enhancing content creation (e.g., generative AI in Photoshop, Premiere Pro) and personalization in Experience Cloud. This aligns with the booming AI market, projected to grow at a 37% CAGR through 2030.
Q1 2025: Revenue up 11% to $5.54B, driven by Digital Media (12% growth) and AI features, per Adobe’s investor reports.
Competitive Moat: Strong brand, subscription model, and AI innovation position Adobe as a leader in creative and marketing software.
Peter Lynch Analysis
Understandability: Clear model—software for creatives, businesses, and marketers, with AI enhancing value.
Earnings Growth: 28.5% EPS CAGR exceeds Lynch’s 20–25% threshold for “fast growers.”
PEG Ratio: 2024 P/E = $614.81 (current price, June 7, 2025) / $11.80 = 52.1. Assuming 15% future EPS growth (analyst estimate), PEG = 52.1 / 15 ≈ 3.47—high, signaling overvaluation.
Moat: Dominant in creative software, with AI tools expanding use cases.
Growth Potential: High, driven by AI integration and digital transformation, though valuation is a concern.
2. ServiceNow (NOW): Driver of Enterprise Digital and AI Workflows
Financial Performance (2015–2024)
Data from MacroTrends and ServiceNow Investor Relations.
Year | Revenue ($B) | Net Income ($B) | EPS (Diluted) ($) | Shares Outstanding (M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 1.005 | -0.198 | -1.27 | 156 |
2016 | 1.391 | -0.451 | -2.75 | 164 |
2017 | 1.934 | -0.149 | -0.87 | 171 |
2018 | 2.609 | -0.027 | -0.15 | 177 |
2019 | 3.460 | 0.627 | 3.36 | 187 |
2020 | 4.519 | 0.119 | 0.59 | 202 |
2021 | 5.896 | 0.230 | 1.13 | 203 |
2022 | 7.245 | 0.325 | 1.60 | 203 |
2023 | 8.971 | 1.731 | 8.42 | 205 |
2024 | 10.984 | 1.000 | 4.84 | 207 |
Revenue Growth: From $1.005B to $10.984B, a CAGR of 30.3%—exceptional for a software firm.
Net Income Growth: Turned profitable in 2019, growing from $0.627B to $1.000B, though 2024 dipped due to R&D and AI investment costs.
EPS Growth: From negative to $4.84 in 2024, with a 36.6% CAGR over 5 years since profitability (2019–2024).
Balance Sheet: Low debt-to-equity (~0.2 in 2024), strong cash flow ($3.5B in 2024 operating cash flow).
2025 Business and AI Workflows
AI and Digital Workflows: ServiceNow’s Now Platform integrates AI for workflow automation, IT service management, and employee/customer experiences. AI-powered offerings (e.g., generative AI for HR, IT) boosted growth.
Q1 2025: Revenue $2.929B, up 24% year-over-year; customer count up 43%, per ServiceNow Investor Relations.
Competitive Moat: Leader in enterprise workflow software, with AI and cloud scalability enhancing its edge.
Peter Lynch Analysis
Understandability: Clear model—automates enterprise workflows with AI, a growing need.
Earnings Growth: 36.6% EPS CAGR (since 2019) exceeds Lynch’s 20–25% threshold, a “fast grower.”
PEG Ratio: 2024 P/E = $1,167.75 (current price) / $4.84 = 241.3. Assuming 20% future EPS growth, PEG = 241.3 / 20 ≈ 12.1—very high, indicating overvaluation.
Moat: Strong position in digital workflows, with AI integration driving demand.
Growth Potential: High, fueled by enterprise digitization and AI, but valuation poses a risk.
3. Cisco (CSCO): Undervalued Relative to Peers, AI Infrastructure Growth
Financial Performance (2015–2024)
Data from MacroTrends.
Year | Revenue ($B) | Net Income ($B) | EPS (Diluted) ($) | Shares Outstanding (M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 49.161 | 8.981 | 1.75 | 5,134 |
2016 | 49.247 | 10.739 | 2.11 | 5,085 |
2017 | 48.005 | 9.609 | 1.90 | 5,054 |
2018 | 49.330 | 0.110 | 0.02 | 5,297 |
2019 | 51.904 | 11.621 | 2.61 | 4,455 |
2020 | 49.301 | 11.214 | 2.64 | 4,245 |
2021 | 49.818 | 10.591 | 2.50 | 4,236 |
2022 | 51.557 | 11.812 | 2.82 | 4,192 |
2023 | 57.000 | 12.613 | 3.08 | 4,096 |
2024 | 53.803 | 10.322 | 2.54 | 4,066 |
Revenue Growth: From $49.161B to $53.803B, a CAGR of 1.0%—modest, reflecting mature market dynamics.
Net Income Growth: From $8.981B to $10.322B, a CAGR of 1.6%, with volatility (e.g., 2018 dip due to tax charges).
EPS Growth: From $1.75 to $2.54, a CAGR of 4.2%, aided by share repurchasing.
Balance Sheet: Strong, with $26.1B in cash, low debt-to-equity (~0.2 in 2024), and $14.8B in 2024 operating cash flow.
2025 Business and AI Infrastructure
AI Infrastructure: Cisco benefits from AI-driven demand for networking, cloud, and security solutions (e.g., Silicon One chips, Hypershield for AI security).
Q1 2025: Revenue $13.7B, down 5% year-over-year due to product transitions, but software subscriptions and AI-related orders grew, per Cisco’s investor reports.
Competitive Moat: Leader in networking, with AI infrastructure and cybersecurity expansion.
Peter Lynch Analysis
Understandability: Clear model—networking and security for digital and AI infrastructure.
Earnings Growth: 4.2% EPS CAGR is low for a “fast grower” but fits Lynch’s “stalwart” category (10–12% growth, reliable dividends).
PEG Ratio: 2024 P/E = $65.26 (current price) / $2.54 = 25.7. Assuming 10% future EPS growth, PEG = 25.7 / 10 = 2.57—high but better than peers.
Moat: Dominant in networking, with AI infrastructure growth potential.
Growth Potential: Moderate to high, driven by AI and cloud demand, with a more reasonable valuation.
Current Valuation (June 7, 2025)
Adobe (ADBE):
Price: $614.81
P/E Ratio: 52.1 (2024 EPS: $11.80)
Forward P/E: ~43 (2025 EPS estimate: $14.30)
PEG Ratio: ~3.47 (15% growth estimate)
Dividend Yield: None
ServiceNow (NOW):
Price: $1,167.75
P/E Ratio: 241.3 (2024 EPS: $4.84)
Forward P/E: ~95 (2025 EPS estimate: $12.30)
PEG Ratio: ~12.1 (20% growth estimate)
Dividend Yield: None
Cisco (CSCO):
Price: $65.26
P/E Ratio: 25.7 (2024 EPS: $2.54)
Forward P/E: ~21 (2025 EPS estimate: $3.10)
PEG Ratio: ~2.57 (10% growth estimate)
Dividend Yield: 2.4% ($1.60 annually)
Is It a High Growth Potential Stock?
Adobe (ADBE):
Growth Potential: High. 28.5% EPS CAGR and AI tool integration (Firefly, Sensei) position Adobe for growth in creative and marketing software, a booming digital space.
Why?: Strong earnings growth, leadership in a growing industry, and AI innovation. However, the high PEG (3.47) suggests overvaluation.
Lynch Verdict: A “fast grower,” but expensive. Growth potential is strong if AI adoption accelerates.
ServiceNow (NOW):
Growth Potential: Very high. 36.6% EPS CAGR (since profitability) and leadership in enterprise digital workflows and AI make it a standout.
Why?: Exceptional revenue growth (30.3% CAGR), AI-driven workflow solutions, and expanding customer base. Extremely high PEG (12.1) is a concern.
Lynch Verdict: A “fast grower,” but valuation is a significant hurdle.
Cisco (CSCO):
Growth Potential: Moderate to high. Slower EPS growth (4.2% CAGR) but benefits from AI infrastructure demand and a lower valuation relative to peers.
Why?: Steady cash flow, 2.4% dividend, and AI-related networking growth. Fits Lynch’s “stalwart” category with upside from AI.
Lynch Verdict: Not a classic “fast grower,” but attractive for stability and moderate growth.
Reasonable Buy Prices
Adobe (ADBE):
Current Price: $614.81
Lynch Approach: Aim for a PEG < 1. For 15% growth, P/E should be ~15, suggesting a price of $11.80 * 15 ≈ $177 (unrealistic). A more practical PEG of 1.5 yields $11.80 * 22.5 ≈ $265. For 2025 EPS ($14.30), a PEG of 1.5 suggests $14.30 * 22.5 ≈ $321.75.
Recommendation: Below $350 offers a margin of safety for growth investors. Current price is high but justifiable for long-term believers in AI growth.
ServiceNow (NOW):
Current Price: $1,167.75
Lynch Approach: For 20% growth, a PEG of 1 implies P/E = 20, so $4.84 * 20 ≈ $96.80 (unrealistic). A PEG of 1.5 suggests $4.84 * 30 ≈ $145.20. For 2025 EPS ($12.30), a PEG of 1.5 yields $12.30 * 30 ≈ $369.
Recommendation: Below $400 provides a margin of safety, though the current $1,167.75 is steep. High-growth investors may consider if willing to stomach volatility.
Cisco (CSCO):
Current Price: $65.26
Lynch Approach: For 10% growth (stalwart), a PEG of 1 implies P/E = 10, so $2.54 * 10 ≈ $25.40 (too low). A PEG of 1.5 suggests $2.54 * 15 ≈ $38.10. For 2025 EPS ($3.10), a PEG of 1.5 yields $3.10 * 15 ≈ $46.50.
Recommendation: Below $50 offers a strong margin of safety, but $65.26 is reasonable given stability, dividends, and AI infrastructure potential.
Recommendation
Adobe (ADBE):
High Growth Potential: Yes, due to strong EPS growth (28.5% CAGR), AI tool integration, and leadership in digital media.
Advice: Worth buying for growth investors, but the high PEG (3.47) suggests caution. Buy below $350 for a safer entry, though $614.81 is acceptable if you believe in AI-driven growth.
ServiceNow (NOW):
High Growth Potential: Yes, exceptional 30.3% revenue CAGR and 36.6% EPS CAGR, with AI and digital workflows driving demand.
Advice: Strong growth stock, but the extremely high P/E (241.3) and PEG (12.1) make it risky. Buy below $400 for a margin of safety; current $1,167.75 is for aggressive investors only.
Cisco (CSCO):
High Growth Potential: Moderate to high, with slower historical growth but upside from AI infrastructure and a lower valuation.
Advice: Attractive for conservative investors, with a reasonable P/E (25.7) and 2.4% dividend. Buy below $50 for safety, though $65.26 is fair for long-term exposure to AI growth.
Final Take: ServiceNow offers the highest growth potential but at a steep valuation. Adobe is a strong contender with AI-driven upside, also pricey. Cisco is the safest, with moderate growth and a better price. For balanced risk, consider Cisco below $50 or Adobe below $350; ServiceNow below $400 is for high-risk, high-reward seekers.