投資週記 2025年6月28日 每週更新

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投資週記 2025年6月28日 每週更新 


Disclaimer: The information provided here is intended for general knowledge and informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on your specific financial situation and needs, and after consultation with a qualified financial advisor.

免責聲明：網頁屬個人博客，一切言論純粹是表達本人的個人意見或經驗分享，無論在任何情況下，不應被視為投資建議，也不構成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦， 本人亦無法保證部落格內容的真實性和完整性。 讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行求證和分析, 讀者一切的投資決定以及該投資決定引致的收益或損失，概與本人無涉。


 
道瓊斯指數 升432.43點或1.00%，報43,819.27點。總結一周，道指升3.82%。

標普500指數 升32.05點或0.52%，報6,173.07點。本星期升3.45%。

納斯達克指數 升105.55點或0.52%，報20,273.46點。全周升4.24%。

紐約7月期油 收報65.52美元一桶，升0.28美元或0.4%。一星期跌12.6%。

紐約8月期金 收報3,287.6美元一盎司，跌60.4美元或1.8%。本周跌2.9%。

比特幣 截至美東時間下午5時報107,168.60元，跌594.71美元或0.55%。全星期升3.47%。

美國10年期國債息率 收報4.283厘，升3.0點子。一周跌9.2點子。

Wall Street Weekly (June 23–27, 2025)

Market Overview

Wall Street delivered a robust performance for the week of June 23–27, 2025, with the major indices posting significant gains and setting new records, signaling the end of the first half’s market correction. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit intraday highs early in the week, driven by optimism over a potential US–China trade deal and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, mid-session volatility emerged after President Trump abruptly halted trade talks with Canada, announcing new tariffs in response to its digital services tax. Despite this, late buying support lifted the indices to record closes. The Dow Jones surged over 400 points on June 27, capping a week of broad-based gains. Meanwhile, oil prices plummeted 12.6% due to easing Middle East tensions, marking the largest weekly decline in over two years, while inflation data and mixed economic signals tempered rate-cut expectations.

Market Performance

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose 432.43 points or 1.00% on June 27, closing at 43,819.27. Weekly gain: 3.82%.
  • S&P 500: Gained 32.05 points or 0.52% on June 27, closing at 6,173.07, a new record high. Weekly gain: 3.45%.
  • Nasdaq Composite: Advanced 105.55 points or 0.52% on June 27, closing at 20,273.46, surpassing 20,000 for the first time. Weekly gain: 4.24%.
  • NYSE and Nasdaq Trading Dynamics: Advancers significantly outpaced decliners, with a 4.76-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and 2.3-to-1 on Nasdaq, reflecting strong market breadth. Trading volume on June 27 reached 14 billion shares, below the 20-session average of 18.10 billion.
  • CBOE Volatility Index (VIX): Declined 1.01% to 16.59, signaling reduced market fear.
  • Oil Prices: NYMEX July crude oil settled at $65.52 per barrel, up $0.28 or 0.4% on June 27 but down 12.6% for the week, the largest drop since early 2023, driven by Middle East de-escalation.
  • Gold Prices: NYMEX August gold fell $60.40 or 1.8% to $3,287.60 per ounce on June 27, with a weekly decline of 2.9%, as safe-haven demand waned.
  • Bitcoin: Closed at $107,168.60 on June 27, down $594.71 or 0.55% daily but up 3.47% for the week, reflecting positive market sentiment.
  • US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Rose 3.0 basis points to 4.283% on June 27, but fell 9.2 basis points for the week, supporting equity gains.
  • US Dollar: Strengthened amid higher-than-expected inflation data, though down 10% year-to-date, potentially aiding US exporters.

Key Movers

  • Winners: Nvidia (NVDA) rose 1.7%, marking three consecutive days of record highs, driven by AI demand. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) each gained nearly 3%, fueled by tech sector strength. Nike (NKE) surged 15% after Q4 revenue of $11.1 billion (down 12% year-over-year but above estimates) and EPS of $0.14, signaling transformation success.
  • Losers: Palantir (PLTR) fell over 3% as geopolitical tensions eased, reducing demand for military-related stocks. Equinix (EQIX) dropped 9% due to near-term growth concerns, despite a $1,035 price target.

Economic and Policy Developments

  • Trade Policy: Commerce Secretary Lutnick announced progress toward a US–China trade deal framework, with expectations of agreements with 10 major trade partners by September 1, potentially extending the July “reciprocal tariffs” grace period. However, President Trump terminated trade talks with Canada over its digital services tax, announcing new tariffs effective next week, sparking mid-session market volatility.
  • Inflation: The core PCE price index rose 2.7% year-over-year in May, up from 2.6% in April and above the 2.6% consensus, moving further from the Fed’s 2% target. This tempered rate-cut expectations, with annual headline PCE at 2.3%.
  • Consumer Confidence: The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index surged to 60.7 in June from 52.2 in May, a 2024 high, with inflation expectations improving to 5% from 6.6%, the largest monthly gain since 2001. However, the Conference Board’s index fell to 93.0, below forecasts of 99.0, citing pessimism about future business and employment conditions.
  • Labor Market: Initial jobless claims dropped to 236,000 for the week ending June 21, below expectations of 245,000, but continuing claims rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021, signaling labor market softening.
  • Consumer Spending: May personal consumption fell 0.5%, and personal spending dropped 0.1%, below expectations of growth, raising concerns about consumer discretionary stocks.
  • GDP: Q1 2025 GDP was revised down to a 0.5% annualized contraction from 0.2%, driven by weaker consumer spending and exports. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker projects 3.4% growth for Q2.
  • Housing: New home sales fell sharply in May, the largest drop in nearly three years, reflecting high mortgage rates and tariff-related uncertainties.

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in congressional testimony, noted that rate cuts might have begun absent trade policy uncertainties. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari projected two rate cuts in 2025, possibly starting in September, but cautioned about tariff-driven inflation lags. Two Trump-appointed Fed governors advocated for a July cut, though others expressed skepticism due to persistent inflation. Goldman Sachs estimates a 60% probability of a July rate cut, but the May PCE data suggests the Fed may delay easing to monitor tariff impacts.

Market Sentiment and Risks

The market’s 24% rally since April’s tariff-induced selloff reflects FOMO-driven momentum, but beneath the optimism, risks loom. Barclays notes significant downside risk in options pricing for speculative funds like ARK Innovation ETF, iShares Russell 2000 ETF, and VanEck Gold Miners ETF. Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett warns of a speculative bubble risk as $164 billion flowed into US equities in 2025, per EPFR Global, potentially the third-largest annual inflow on record. The S&P 500’s 23.3 times earnings valuation signals overvaluation, particularly in tech, with a narrow market raising concerns about sustainability.

Outlook

The market’s record highs signal resilience, but tariff uncertainties, elevated inflation, and weakening consumer spending pose challenges. July’s historical strength for the S&P 500, combined with potential rate cuts, could sustain momentum, but tariff deadlines and upcoming economic data (e.g., nonfarm payrolls, ISM PMI) will be critical. Investors should remain vigilant for volatility while capitalizing on selective opportunities in high-quality growth and value stocks.

Disclaimer

This advisory is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Market conditions are subject to change, and past performance is not indicative of future results.


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