芒格: 銀行房地產貸款引發的另一場危機
摩根士丹利週一宣布將從監管機構手中收購第一共和國銀行（FRB）的大部分資產。 摩根士丹利首席執行官傑米戴蒙透露，此次收購是應政府邀請進行的。 聯邦存款保險公司 (FDIC) 協議規定，摩根士丹利不會購買 FRB 公司債券或優先股¹。
FRB 是繼矽谷銀行 (SVB) 和 Signature Bank¹ 之後不到兩個月內第三家被 FDIC 接管的銀行。 就資產規模而言，這是美國歷史上第二大銀行倒閉事件（僅次於 2008 年的華盛頓互惠銀行）¹。 戴蒙指出，連續的銀行倒閉主要是個別機構過度擴張，不排除其他小銀行可能陷入財務困境，但整體銀行體系非常穩定，相信這場危機已經過去¹。
事實上，FRB在3月中旬就已經“出事”，隨後又收到包括摩根士丹利在內的11家大銀行的巨額資金，助其撐到4月底²。 當時，戴蒙顯然低估了這場銀行業風暴的嚴重性，也許現在仍然如此²。
另一方面，沃倫巴菲特4月中旬在接受采訪時提到，有FDIC支持，美國銀行儲戶不會遭受任何損失，但投行股票不受保護。 巴菲特擔心會有更多的銀行倒閉警告，並在三週內實現了²。
同樣，巴菲特半個多世紀的親密戰友、投資旗艦公司伯克希爾哈撒韋公司副董事長、99 歲高齡的查理芒格近日接受采訪時表示，有大量問題重重的寫字樓、購物中心等 美國的房地產。 國內各家銀行的房地產貸款遠高於六個月前，所有銀行都面臨重大威脅。 芒格說，當銀行出現問題時，其他地方都會有困難。 芒格將華爾街稱為銀行房地產貸款引發的另一場危機²。
資料來源：與 Bing 的對話，14/05/2023(1) First Republic：摩根大通收購美國主要銀行 - BBC 新聞。 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65445427 於 2023 年 5 月 14 日訪問。
(2) 摩根大通購買 First Republic Bank 的銷售：您需要了解的內容。 https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/01/jpmorgan-first-republic-sale-what-you-need-to-know-00094644 於 2023 年 5 月 14 日訪問。
(3) First Republic Bank 被 FDIC 接管並出售給摩根大通 - NBC 新聞。 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/first-republic-bank-fdic-takeover-sold-jp-morgan-rcna81437 於 2023 年 5 月 14 日訪問。
(4) 反應：JPMorgan 購買 First Republic Bank 的資產。 https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/jpmorgan-buys-first-republic-banks-assets-2023-05-01/ 於 2023 年 5 月 14 日訪問。
(5) 第一共和國被出售：須知。 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/01/business/first-republic-stock-deposits-sale.html 於 2023 年 5 月 14 日訪問。
(6) 監管機構接管 First Republic Bank，將資產出售給摩根大通。 https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/regulators-seize-first-republic-bank-sell-assets-to-jpmorgan/ar-AA1aBIR5 於 2023 年 5 月 14 日訪問。
(7) 監管機構接管 First Republic Bank，將資產出售給摩根大通。 https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/california-financial-regulator-takes-possession-first-republic-bank-2023-05-01/ 於 2023 年 5 月 14 日訪問。
Morgan Stanley announced on Monday that it will acquire most of the assets of First Republic Bank (FRB) from regulators. The CEO of Morgan Stanley, Jamie Dimon, revealed that this acquisition was made at the invitation of the government¹. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) agreement stipulates that Morgan Stanley will not buy FRB corporate bonds or preferred shares¹.
FRB is the third bank to be taken over by FDIC in less than two months after Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank¹. In terms of asset size, it is the second largest bank failure in US history (second only to Washington Mutual in 2008)¹. Dimon pointed out that consecutive bank failures are mainly due to individual institutions' excessive expansion and does not rule out that other small banks may be in financial trouble, but the overall banking system is very stable and believes that this crisis has passed¹.
In fact, FRB had already "had trouble" in mid-March and then received a huge amount of money from 11 large banks including Morgan Stanley to help it survive until the end of April². At that time, Dimon clearly underestimated the severity of this banking storm, perhaps still so now².
On the other hand, Warren Buffett mentioned in an interview in mid-April that with FDIC backing, US bank depositors will not suffer any losses, but investment bank stocks are not protected. Buffett is worried that there will be more bank failures warning and it was fulfilled within three weeks².
Similarly, Charlie Munger, Buffett's intimate comrade-in-arms for more than half a century, vice chairman of investment flagship Berkshire Hathaway and 99 years old said in a recent interview that there are a large number of troubled office buildings, shopping centers and other real estate in the United States. The real estate loans of each domestic bank are far higher than six months ago, and all banks face major threats. Munger said that when there are problems with banks, there are difficulties everywhere else. Munger named Wall Street as another crisis caused by real estate loans from banks².
Source: Conversation with Bing, 14/05/2023(1) First Republic: JP Morgan snaps up major US bank - BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65445427 Accessed 14/05/2023.
(2) JPMorgan buys First Republic Bank sale: What you need to know. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/01/jpmorgan-first-republic-sale-what-you-need-to-know-00094644 Accessed 14/05/2023.
(3) First Republic Bank taken over by FDIC and sold to JPMorgan - NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/first-republic-bank-fdic-takeover-sold-jp-morgan-rcna81437 Accessed 14/05/2023.
(4) Reactions: JPMorgan buys First Republic Bank's assets. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/jpmorgan-buys-first-republic-banks-assets-2023-05-01/ Accessed 14/05/2023.
(5) First Republic Is Sold: What to Know. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/01/business/first-republic-stock-deposits-sale.html Accessed 14/05/2023.
(6) Regulators seize First Republic Bank, sell assets to JPMorgan. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/regulators-seize-first-republic-bank-sell-assets-to-jpmorgan/ar-AA1aBIR5 Accessed 14/05/2023.
(7) Regulators seize First Republic Bank, sell assets to JPMorgan. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/california-financial-regulator-takes-possession-first-republic-bank-2023-05-01/ Accessed 14/05/2023.