投資週記 April 05, 2025

 投資週記 March 30, 2025 每週市場更新

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Date: April 05, 2025

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1. Executive Summary

• Market Overview:
  U.S. equity markets are in significant correction mode following a steep two-day selloff driven by escalating U.S.–China trade tensions and tariff retaliations. The S&P 500 has fallen 5.97% (a ~10% two-day drop with a market cap loss of approximately $5.4 trillion), the Dow Jones is down 5.5%, and the Nasdaq, which is now down 22% from its all-time high, has dropped 5.82%—pushing it into bear market territory. The Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 have also posted notable declines. The VIX surged 51%, reaching its highest level since March 2020.

• Sector Highlights:
  Technology, particularly the “Magnificent 7” (which lost $1.4 trillion in market cap this week), and semiconductor stocks are bearing the brunt of the selloff. Major tech names like Tesla (↓10.4%), Nvidia (↓7.4%), Apple (↓7.3%), Meta (↓5.1%), Amazon (↓4.2%), Microsoft (↓3.6%), and Alphabet (↓3.2%) have all seen significant losses. In the semiconductor space, indices and stocks—including the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (↓7.6%), Micron (↓13%), Intel (↓11.5%), AMD (↓8.6%), and TSMC (US ADR, ↓6.7%)—are under pressure. AI stocks and the banking sector are also hit amid rising recession fears.

• Global & Macro Trends:
  China’s retaliatory move to impose 34% tariffs and restrictions on rare earth exports, combined with fears of a deepening trade war, have intensified recession concerns. Safe-haven flows have pushed Treasury yields lower, while oil and other commodities have tumbled sharply.

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2. Market Update

Major Index Performance:

• S&P 500: Down 5.97% today (a two-day decline of ~10%, market cap loss of $5.4 trillion)

• Dow Jones: Down 5.5%

• Nasdaq: Down 5.82% (down 22% from its all-time high, now in bear market territory)

• Russell 2000: Down 4.37%

• Nasdaq 100: Down 6.01% (weekly loss: 11.23%)

Volatility:

• VIX Index: Up 51%, the highest since March 2020

Catalysts:

• Tariff Impact: China's announcement of 34% tariffs and restrictions on rare earth exports, in response to U.S. policies, has amplified recession fears.

• Bond Market Rally: The 2-year Treasury yield has fallen by 20 basis points to 3.65%, and the 10-year yield by 26 basis points to 3.99%, as investors seek safe-haven assets.

• Commodities: Oil prices (WTI and Brent) have tumbled by over 6-7%, with metals such as gold, silver, and copper also reporting significant weekly declines.

Visual Insight:

• Chart 1: Major Index performance and VIX trend (illustrates sharp equity declines alongside a spike in volatility)

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3. Sector & Stock Performance

Technology Selloff – “Magnificent 7”:

• Combined market cap loss of $1.4 trillion this week

• Tesla: ↓10.4%

• Nvidia: ↓7.4%

• Apple: ↓7.3%

• Meta: ↓5.1%

• Amazon: ↓4.2%

• Microsoft: ↓3.6%

• Alphabet: ↓3.2%

Semiconductors:

• Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: Down 7.6%

• Micron: ↓13%

• Intel: ↓11.5%

• AMD: ↓8.6%

• TSMC (US ADR): ↓6.7%

AI Stocks:

• Applovin: ↓16.3%

• Palantir: ↓11.5%

• BullFrog AI: ↓7.8%

• Dell: ↓7.2%

Banking Sector:

• KBW Bank Index: Down 6.6%

• Goldman Sachs: ↓7.9%

• Citigroup: ↓7.8%

• Bank of America: ↓7.6%

• JPMorgan & Morgan Stanley: ↓7.5%

• Wells Fargo: ↓7.2%

Visual Insight:

• Chart 2: Sector Performance Breakdown (highlights the relative weakness in tech, semiconductors, and banking sectors)

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Risk Management & Outlook

Downside Risks:

• Escalating Trade Tensions: Continued U.S.–China trade conflict could further disrupt supply chains and weigh on economic growth.

• Recession Fears: With tightening global conditions and rising tariff pressures, the risk of a recession looms, potentially impacting earnings across sectors.

• Inflation Concerns: Persistent inflation may compel the Fed to maintain higher rates for longer, further pressuring high-growth tech stocks.

Upside Catalysts:

• Safe-Haven Rally: Bond markets are showing resilience, and safe-haven assets may provide cushion if equities continue to decline.

• Long-Term Structural Trends: Despite the current selloff, the underlying secular trends in AI, advanced semiconductors, and technology adoption remain strong.

市場概況：

受中美貿易緊張局勢升級和關稅報復影響，美國股市連續兩天大幅下跌，目前正處於大幅調整階段。標準普爾 500 指數下跌 5.97%（兩天內下跌約 10%，市值損失約 5.4 兆美元），道瓊指數下跌 5.5%，那斯達克指數目前已較歷史高點下跌 22%，下跌 5.82%，進入熊市區域。羅素2000指數和那斯達克100指數也出現明顯下跌。 VIX指數飆升51％，達到2020年3月以來的最高水準。

業界亮點：

科技股，尤其是「七俠蕩寇風雲」（本週其市值蒸發 1.4 兆美元）和半導體股，首當其衝受到拋售的衝擊。特斯拉（↓10.4%）、英偉達（↓7.4%）、蘋果（↓7.3%）、Meta（↓5.1%）、亞馬遜（↓4.2%）、微軟（↓3.6%）和 Alphabet（↓3.2%）等主要科技公司都出現大幅下跌。在半導體領域，包括費城半導體指數（↓7.6%）、美光（↓13%）、英特爾（↓11.5%）、AMD（↓8.6%）和台積電（美國 ADR，↓6.7%）在內的指數和股票都面臨壓力。隨著經濟衰退擔憂加劇，人工智慧股和銀行業也受到衝擊。

全球及宏觀趨勢：

中國採取報復性措施，對稀土出口徵收 34% 的關稅和限制，再加上對貿易戰加劇的擔憂，加劇了人們對經濟衰退的擔憂。避險資金流入導緻美國公債殖利率下降，而石油和其他大宗商品則大幅下跌。

2. 市場更新

主要指數表現：

標普 500 指數：今日下跌 5.97%（兩天下跌約 10%，市值損失 5.4 兆美元）

道瓊指數：下跌5.5%

納斯達克：下跌 5.82%（較歷史最高點下跌 22%，目前處於熊市區域）

羅素2000指數：下跌4.37%

那斯達克 100 指數：下跌 6.01%（週跌幅：11.23%）

揮發性：

VIX 指數：上漲 51%，創 2020 年 3 月以來最高水平

催化劑：

關稅影響：為回應美國的政策，中國宣布對稀土出口徵收 34% 的關稅並實施限制，這加劇了人們對經濟衰退的擔憂。

債券市場反彈：由於投資者尋求避險資產，兩年期公債殖利率下跌 20 個基點至 3.65%，十年期公債殖利率下跌 26 個基點至 3.99%。

大宗商品：油價（WTI 和布倫特）下跌超過 6-7%，黃金、白銀和銅等金屬價格也大幅週跌。

視覺洞察：

圖 1：主要指數表現和 VIX 趨勢（顯示股市大幅下跌，同時波動性飆升）

3. 產業及股票表現

科技股拋售－「七俠蕩寇」：

本週市值合計損失 1.4 兆美元

特斯拉：下跌10.4%

Nvidia：下滑7.4%

蘋果：下滑7.3%

Meta：↓5.1%

亞馬遜：下跌4.2%

微軟：下滑3.6%

Alphabet：下滑3.2%

半導體：

費城半導體指數：下跌 7.6%

美光：下降13%

英特爾：下滑11.5%

AMD：下滑8.6%

台積電（美國ADR）：下跌6.7%

人工智慧股票：

Applovin：下降16.3%

Palantir：下降11.5%

BullFrog AI：下降7.8%

戴爾：下滑7.2%

銀行業：

KBW銀行指數：下跌6.6%

高盛：下跌7.9%

花旗集團：下跌7.8%

美國銀行：下跌7.6%

摩根大通和摩根士丹利：下降7.5%

富國銀行：下跌7.2%

風險管理與展望

貿易緊張局勢升級：持續的中美貿易衝突可能會進一步擾亂供應鏈並影響經濟成長。

經濟衰退擔憂：隨著全球情勢趨緊和關稅壓力上升，經濟衰退的風險迫在眉睫，可能會影響各行業的收益。

通膨擔憂：持續的通膨可能迫使聯準會在更長時間內維持較高利率，進一步給高成長科技股帶來壓力。

上行催化劑：

避險資產反彈：債券市場表現出韌性，如果股市繼續下跌，避險資產可能會提供緩衝。

長期結構性趨勢：儘管目前出現拋售，但人工智慧、先進半導體和技術採用的潛在長期趨勢仍然強勁。