投資週記 2025年7月11日 美國股市摘要
投資週記 2025年7月11日 美國股市摘要
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市場概覽
道瓊工業平均指數:7月11日下跌1.02%,至44,371.51點,下跌279.13點(0.63%)。
標普500指數:7月11日下跌0.31%,至6,259.75點,下跌20.71點(0.33%)。
那斯達克指數:7月11日下跌0.08%,至20,585.53點,下跌45.14點(0.22%)。
主要驅動因素:川普威脅對加拿大徵收35%的關稅,以及對貿易夥伴提高關稅,對市場帶來壓力。能源股上漲,而金融股和軟體股則表現落後。
市場情緒:投資人保持冷靜,根據川普的談判歷史,預期關稅結果會較為溫和。
主要市場指標
紐約商品交易所8月原油價格:68.45美元/桶,週漲0.6%。
8月黃金價格:3,364.0美元/盎司,週漲1.2%。
比特幣價格:117,826.03美元,週漲3.7%。
美國10年期公債殖利率:4.423%,週漲7.7個基點。
板塊表現
能源:受油價上漲推動,是唯一上漲的板塊。
科技:漲跌互現,英偉達、特斯拉、亞馬遜上漲;Meta和Salesforce下跌。
金融股:受關稅不確定性影響下跌。
消費品:零售銷售擔憂導致金融股走弱。
截至2025年7月11日當週,美國股市主要股指全線下跌,受貿易緊張局勢升級的影響。此前,川普總統宣布對加拿大商品徵收35%的關稅,對歐盟和墨西哥徵收30%的關稅,對日本、韓國等國徵收25%的關稅,並對銅進口徵收50%的關稅,這些措施都將於2025年8月1日生效。道瓊工業指數下跌1.02%,至44,371.51點;標準普爾500指數下跌0.31%,至6,259.75點;那斯達克指數下跌0.08%,至20,585.53點。 7月14日上午,SPDR標普500 ETF信託基金(SPY)收在623.62美元,下跌約0.4%,景順QQQ信託系列1(QQQ)收在554.2美元,下跌約0.2%。儘管市場低迷,但受強勁基本面支撐,英偉達(+3.50%)和特斯拉(+1.80%)等科技領導者表現優異。主要驅動因素包括關稅引發的通膨擔憂、第二季獲利預期好壞參半以及顯示通膨持續居高不下的經濟數據(個人消費支出(PCE)約2.3%))。全球市場也面臨類似的壓力,比特幣創下117,826.03美元的歷史新高,油價上漲至每桶68.45美元。高盛維持樂觀但謹慎的預期,將標普500指數12個月目標價上調至約6,900點(+11%)。
市場概況
道瓊工業平均指數:7月11日收盤報44,371.51點,下跌279.13點(0.63%);週跌幅1.02%。年初至今(YTD):上漲6.0%。
標普500指數:7月11日收盤報6,259.75點,下跌20.71點(0.33%);週跌幅0.31%。年初至今:上漲6.4%。
那斯達克指數:7月11日收盤報20,585.53點,下跌45.14點(0.22%);週跌幅0.08%。年初至今:上漲6.6%。
SPDR 標準普爾 500 ETF 信託 (SPY):截至日本標準時間 7 月 14 日 17:34,股價為 623.62 美元,下跌 2.21 美元 (-0.00%);早盤下跌約 0.4%。
景順 QQQ 信託系列 1 (QQQ):截至日本標準時間 7 月 14 日 17:34,股價為 554.2 美元,下跌 1.12 美元 (-0.00%);早盤下跌約 0.2%。
羅素 2000 指數:表現遜色,7 月 11 日下跌 1.3%,反映出小型股易受關稅壓力影響。
產業表現:
科技和工業板塊:上漲 0.6%,英偉達和超微半導體 (AMD) 領漲。
消費必需品板塊:上漲 2%,卡夫亨氏上漲約 1%,因潛在 200 億美元食品雜貨分拆。
能源:唯一持續上漲的板塊,上漲0.6%,受油價上漲支撐。
金融:下跌1.9%,關稅不確定性和美國公債殖利率上升的壓力。
通訊服務:下跌1.2%,科技巨頭表現不一。
主要科技公司股票變動
儘管大盤疲軟,科技股仍展現韌性:
英偉達 (NVDA):+3.50% – 受AI晶片需求和強勁成長前景的推動,創下歷史新高。
特斯拉 (TSLA):+1.80% – 受第二季創紀錄交付量的推動,7月11日上漲超過1%。
亞馬遜 (AMZN):+1.50% – 受電子商務和雲端運算強勁表現的支撐,上漲超過1%。
Alphabet (GOOGL):+1.30% – 受廣告和雲端服務成長的推動,上漲超過1%。
超微半導體公司 (AMD):+2.00% – 受人工智慧晶片樂觀情緒推動,7 月 11 日上漲近 2%。
Meta Platforms (META):-1.20% – 受軟體產業疲軟影響,7 月 11 日下跌逾 1%。
Salesforce (CRM):-2.80% – 受企業軟體支出疑慮影響,股價下跌。
重要財經新聞
川普關稅升級:川普總統宣布對加拿大商品徵收 35% 的關稅,對歐盟和墨西哥徵收 30% 的關稅,對日本、韓國等國徵收 25% 的關稅,並對銅徵收 50% 的關稅,這些關稅將於 2025 年 8 月 1 日生效,理由是貿易逆差和國家安全(例如關稅)。
全球報復風險:歐盟威脅採取報復措施,而加拿大誓言將根據《美國-墨西哥-加拿大協定》就豁免問題進行談判。日本和韓國面臨 25% 的關稅,引發市場擔憂。
銅市場影響:全球銅貿易商為規避美國50%的關稅,將貨物轉運至中國,影響了電網和資料中心的供應鏈。
聯準會展望:芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行行長奧斯坦·古爾斯比指出,關稅引發的通膨風險,將降息延後至2025年秋季或2026年初。個人消費支出(PCE)通膨率約2.3%,高於聯準會2%的目標;聯邦基金利率約4.3%。
摩根大通獲利預測:執行長傑米戴蒙警告市場對關稅的通膨影響過於自滿,預計第二季業績將為金融股定下基調。財務長傑里米·巴納姆指出,企業重點正轉向供應鏈優化。
比特幣創歷史新高:受投機交易和監管擔憂減弱的推動,比特幣飆升3.7%,至117,826.03美元。
油價飆升:受美國制裁俄羅斯石油和中東緊張局勢的擔憂推動,紐約商品交易所8月原油期貨上漲0.6%,至每桶68.45美元。
黃金價格維持穩定:8月黃金價格上漲1.2%,至每盎司3,364.0美元,鞏固了其避險地位。
美國10年期公債殖利率:上漲7.7個基點,至4.423%,反映通膨預期。
業績亮點:Levi Strauss在第二季業績超預期並上調業績指引後,股價飆升11.3%,為財報季奠定了積極基調。
市場變化的關鍵驅動因素
1. 地緣政治事件
川普的關稅威脅:對加拿大徵收35%的關稅,對歐盟/墨西哥徵收30%的關稅,對日本徵收25%的關稅韓國和銅價分別下跌50%和50%,市場動盪不安,引發了對全球貿易戰的擔憂。鑑於川普過去在極端威脅面前有所退縮,投資人預期貿易戰結果將較為溫和。
全球報復:歐盟警告將採取報復性關稅,以及加拿大的談判努力,這增加了不確定性,但市場保持平靜,波動率指數 (VIX) 和債券波動率有所下降。
中東風險:對美國制裁俄羅斯石油以及持續的中東緊張局勢的擔憂推高了油價,支撐了能源股。
2. 經濟數據
通膨壓力:個人消費支出 (PCE) 通膨率約為2.3%,美國公債殖利率上升(4.423%),顯示通膨壓力持續存在,而關稅提案則加劇了通膨壓力。
訊號混雜:本週稍早強勁的初請失業金人數與疲軟的零售額形成鮮明對比,引發了人們對消費者支出韌性的擔憂。
即將公佈的數據:6月份消費者物價指數(7月15日)、生產者物價指數(7月16日)和零售額(7月17日)將決定聯準會的政策預期和市場情緒。
3. 企業獲利
第二季初表現強勁:李維斯公司在超越第二季目標並調升業績指引後,股價飆升11.3%,提振了市場樂觀情緒。
科技板塊韌性:高盛預計,受人工智慧和雲端運算需求的推動,營收成長率超過10%的科技公司(例如英偉達和AMD)將表現出色。
金融展望:摩根大通即將公佈的第二季財報將在收益率上升和關稅擔憂的背景下考驗該行業的韌性。戴蒙對市場自滿的警告凸顯了風險。
消費品與航空業:分析師對AMC(盤前上漲7%)和達美航空等公司的積極上調,支撐了部分漲幅。
全球金融市場背景
新興市場:中國的刺激措施提振股市,印度Sensex指數因強勁的國內消費而創下歷史新高。
歐元區:通膨上升促使歐洲央行維持緊縮政策,影響債券殖利率。
日本:日本央行結束負利率的訊號導致日圓走強,影響了出口股。
大宗商品:黃金作為避險資產保持穩定,而油價則因地緣政治風險而上漲。全球GDP預測:2025年美國成長1.8%,歐洲成長1.0%。
高盛觀點
標普500指數目標上調
6個月目標:約6,600點(+6%),受聯準會預期降息和企業獲利穩定成長(到2026年,年均每股收益約7%)的推動。
12 個月目標:約 6,900 點(+11%),基於溫和成長和通膨可控的「金髮姑娘」情景。
戰略配置指引
增持產業:軟體(例如 MSFT、GOOGL)、材料(例如 Nucor、Freeport-McMoRan)、公用事業、房地產和另類資產管理公司(例如 BlackRock、KKR),以受益於人工智慧的順風、通貨再膨脹和債券收益率下降。
對沖風險:黃金 (GLD)、部分新興市場、短期債券和防禦性股票,以降低關稅和通膨風險。
風險管理訊號
市場廣度:市場廣度較弱會增加回調風險;監測 RSI 背離和落後股票的追趕潛力。
債券殖利率與美元:美國公債長期錯置和美元疲軟是市場動盪的早期預警訊號。
戰術建議
部位
理由
大型軟體/服務股(微軟、客戶關係管理、Google)
受人工智慧和雲端運算業務成長支撐,且能抵禦關稅壓力。
材料股(紐柯、自由港麥克莫蘭)
受益於關稅驅動的供應緊張和全球通貨再膨脹。
公用事業和房地產投資信託基金
在波動中尋求防禦性收益。
金融股(摩根大通、高盛、美國銀行)
隨著聯準會放鬆貨幣政策,淨利息收入可望成長;關注第二季業績。
另類資產管理公司(貝萊德、KKR)
持有量較低,受惠於市場輪動。
黃金(GLD)
對沖宏觀風險和美元貶值。
關注:李維斯(強勁業績指引)、埃克森美孚(第二季上漲潛力)、普拉格能源(清潔能源動能強勁)、阿佩利斯製藥(生技成長)。
近期展望
獲利催化劑:摩根大通、花旗集團、Netflix 和台積電的第二季業績將奠定基調。預期業績將維持韌性,但若不及預期則可能引發市場波動。
宏觀催化劑:消費者物價指數(7 月 15 日)、生產者物價指數(7 月 16 日)和零售額(7 月 17 日)將闡明通膨趨勢和聯準會政策。
技術面:RSI 背離和季節性因素暗示可能出現盤整;SPY 和 QQQ 的下跌被快速買入,顯示市場看漲情緒。
策略摘要
維持樂觀但審慎的展望,目標標普 500 指數 12 個月內達到 6,900 點左右。建議建立多元化投資組合,重點關注優質產業(科技、材料、公用事業)和動態對沖工具(黃金、防禦性資產),以應對關稅風險、通膨壓力和潛在的債券市場混亂。密切注意盈利和宏觀數據,以便進行戰術調整。
Original Article in English:
Weekly Wall Street Stock Market Analysis: Week Ending July 11, 2025
Executive Summary
The US stock market closed the week ending July 11, 2025, with declines across major indices, driven by escalating trade tensions following President Trump’s announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian goods, 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico, 25% tariffs on Japan, South Korea, and others, and a 50% tariff on copper imports, all effective August 1, 2025. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.02% to 44,371.51, the S&P 500 declined 0.31% to 6,259.75, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.08% to 20,585.53. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) closed at $623.62, down ~0.4% on July 14 morning, and the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) ended at $554.2, down ~0.2%. Despite the downturn, technology leaders like Nvidia (+3.50%) and Tesla (+1.80%) outperformed, supported by strong fundamentals. Key drivers included tariff-induced inflation fears, mixed Q2 earnings expectations, and economic data showing sticky inflation (PCE ~2.3%). Globally, markets faced similar pressures, with Bitcoin hitting a record $117,826.03 and oil rising to $68.45 per barrel. Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish yet cautious outlook, raising the S&P 500 12-month target to ~6,900 (+11%).
Market Snapshot
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 44,371.51, down 279.13 points (0.63%) on July 11; weekly loss of 1.02%. Year-to-date (YTD): +6.0%.
S&P 500: Ended at 6,259.75, down 20.71 points (0.33%) on July 11; weekly decline of 0.31%. YTD: +6.4%.
Nasdaq Composite: Closed at 20,585.53, down 45.14 points (0.22%) on July 11; weekly drop of 0.08%. YTD: +6.6%.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): $623.62, down $2.21 (-0.00%) as of July 14, 17:34 JST; morning session down ~0.4%.
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ): $554.2, down $1.12 (-0.00%) as of July 14, 17:34 JST; morning session down ~0.2%.
Russell 2000: Underperformed, down 1.3% on July 11, reflecting small-cap vulnerability to tariff pressures.
Sector Performance:
Technology and Industrials: Gained 0.6%, led by Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
Consumer Staples: Up 2%, with Kraft Heinz rising ~1% amid potential $20 billion grocery spinoff.
Energy: Only sector with consistent gains, up 0.6%, supported by rising oil prices.
Financials: Down 1.9%, pressured by tariff uncertainties and rising Treasury yields.
Communication Services: Fell 1.2%, with mixed tech giant performance.
Top Technology Companies Stock Changes
Technology stocks demonstrated resilience despite broader market weakness:
Nvidia (NVDA): +3.50% – Hit record highs, driven by AI chip demand and strong growth outlook.
Tesla (TSLA): +1.80% – Gained over 1% on July 11, bolstered by record Q2 deliveries.
Amazon (AMZN): +1.50% – Up over 1%, supported by e-commerce and cloud computing strength.
Alphabet (GOOGL): +1.30% – Rose over 1%, driven by advertising and cloud services growth.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): +2.00% – Up nearly 2% on July 11, fueled by AI chip optimism.
Meta Platforms (META): -1.20% – Fell over 1% on July 11, hit by software sector weakness.
Salesforce (CRM): -2.80% – Declined due to concerns over enterprise software spending.
Key Finance News
Trump’s Tariff Escalation: President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods, 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico, 25% on Japan, South Korea, and others, and a 50% tariff on copper, effective August 1, 2025, citing trade deficits and national security (e.g., dairy duties).
Global Retaliation Risks: The EU threatened retaliatory measures, while Canada vowed to negotiate exemptions under USMCA. Japan and South Korea face 25% tariffs, prompting market concerns.
Copper Market Impact: Global copper traders redirected cargoes to China to avoid the 50% US tariff, impacting power grid and data center supply chains.
Federal Reserve Outlook: Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee noted tariff-driven inflation risks, delaying rate cuts until fall 2025 or early 2026. PCE inflation at ~2.3%, above the Fed’s 2% target; Fed funds rate at ~4.3%.
JPMorgan Earnings Preview: CEO Jamie Dimon warned of market complacency regarding tariffs’ inflationary impact, with Q2 earnings expected to set the tone for financials. CFO Jeremy Barnum noted corporate focus shifting to supply chain optimization.
Bitcoin Record High: Bitcoin surged 3.7% to $117,826.03, driven by speculative trading and reduced regulatory fears.
Oil Price Surge: NYMEX August crude rose 0.6% to $68.45 per barrel, fueled by fears of US sanctions on Russian oil and Middle East tensions.
Gold Stability: August gold gained 1.2% to $3,364.0 per ounce, reinforcing its safe-haven role.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Rose 7.7 basis points to 4.423%, reflecting inflation expectations.
Earnings Highlights: Levi Strauss soared 11.3% after beating Q2 targets and raising guidance, setting a positive tone for earnings season.
Key Drivers Behind Market Changes
1. Geopolitical Events
Trump’s Tariff Threats: The 35% tariff on Canada, 30% on EU/Mexico, 25% on Japan/South Korea, and 50% on copper rattled markets, raising fears of a global trade war. Investors expect milder outcomes based on Trump’s history of backing off extreme threats.
Global Retaliation: The EU’s warning of retaliatory tariffs and Canada’s negotiation efforts added uncertainty, though markets remained calm, with VIX and bond volatility declining.
Middle East Risks: Concerns over US sanctions on Russian oil and ongoing Middle East tensions drove oil prices higher, supporting energy stocks.
2. Economic Data
Inflation Pressures: PCE inflation at ~2.3% and rising Treasury yields (4.423%) signaled persistent inflationary pressures, exacerbated by tariff proposals.
Mixed Signals: Strong jobless claims earlier in the week contrasted with weaker retail sales, raising concerns about consumer spending resilience.
Upcoming Data: June CPI (July 15), PPI (July 16), and Retail Sales (July 17) will shape Fed policy expectations and market sentiment.
3. Corporate Earnings
Early Q2 Strength: Levi Strauss’s 11.3% surge after beating Q2 targets and raising guidance boosted market optimism.
Tech Sector Resilience: Goldman Sachs expects tech firms with >10% revenue growth (e.g., Nvidia, AMD) to outperform, driven by AI and cloud demand.
Financials Outlook: JPMorgan’s upcoming Q2 earnings will test the sector’s resilience amid rising yields and tariff concerns. Dimon’s warning of market complacency underscores risks.
Consumer and Airlines: Positive analyst upgrades for companies like AMC (+7% premarket) and Delta Air Lines supported selective gains.
Global Financial Markets Context
Emerging Markets: China’s stimulus measures bolstered equities, with India’s Sensex hitting record highs due to strong domestic consumption.
Eurozone: Rising inflation prompted the ECB to maintain tight policies, impacting bond yields.
Japan: The Bank of Japan’s signal to end negative rates strengthened the yen, affecting export stocks.
Commodities: Gold held steady as a safe-haven, while oil prices rose due to geopolitical risks. Global GDP forecasts: US +1.8%, Europe +1.0% for 2025.
Goldman Sachs Perspective
Enhanced S&P Targets
6-Month Target: ~6,600 (+6%), driven by expected Fed rate cuts and steady earnings growth (~7% EPS annually through 2026).
12-Month Target: ~6,900 (+11%), predicated on a “Goldilocks” scenario of moderate growth and controlled inflation.
Strategic Allocation Guidance
Overweight Sectors: Software (e.g., MSFT, GOOGL), materials (e.g., Nucor, Freeport-McMoRan), utilities, real estate, and alternative asset managers (e.g., BlackRock, KKR) to benefit from AI tailwinds, reflation, and falling bond yields.
Hedge Risks: Gold (GLD), select emerging markets, shorter-duration bonds, and defensive equities to mitigate tariff and inflation risks.
Risk Management Signals
Market Breadth: Weak breadth increases pullback risks; monitor RSI divergence and lagging stock catch-up potential.
Bond Yields and USD: Treasury long-end dislocations and USD weakness are early warning signals for market disruptions.
Tactical Recommendations
Positioning | Rationale |
---|---|
Large-cap Software/Services (MSFT, CRM, GOOGL) | Supported by AI and cloud growth, resilient to tariff pressures. |
Materials (Nucor, Freeport-McMoRan) | Benefit from tariff-driven supply tightness and global reflation. |
Utilities & REITs | Defensive yield plays amid volatility. |
Financials (JPM, GS, BofA) | Poised for net interest income gains as Fed eases; monitor Q2 earnings. |
Alternative Asset Managers (BlackRock, KKR) | Underowned, benefit from market rotation. |
Gold (GLD) | Hedge against macro risks and USD depreciation. |
Watchlist: Levi Strauss (strong guidance), Exxon (Q2 upside potential), Plug Power (clean-energy momentum), Apellis Pharma (biotech growth).
Near-Term Outlook
Earnings Catalyst: Q2 earnings from JPMorgan, Citigroup, Netflix, and TSMC will set the tone. Resilience is expected, but misses could trigger volatility.
Macro Catalysts: CPI (July 15), PPI (July 16), and Retail Sales (July 17) will clarify inflation trends and Fed policy.
Technicals: RSI divergence and seasonality suggest potential consolidation; SPY and QQQ dips are being bought quickly, indicating bullish sentiment.
Strategic Summary
Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish yet measured outlook, targeting an S&P 500 of ~6,900 in 12 months. A diversified portfolio focused on quality sectors (tech, materials, utilities) and dynamic hedges (gold, defensives) is recommended to navigate tariff risks, inflation pressures, and potential bond market dislocations. Monitor earnings and macro data closely for tactical adjustments.
For bespoke sector analysis or portfolio rebalancing, contact your Goldman Sachs advisor or access our client portal.
Sources:
Yahoo Finance: Trump Tariffs Live Updates
Reuters: Trump’s EU/Mexico Tariffs
Benzinga: JPMorgan Earnings Preview
Goldman Sachs: S&P 500 Forecasts
MarketWatch: Investment Strategies
Edward Jones: Fed Outlook
AP News: Market Performance