投資週記：9月26日 美國經濟強勁超預期，通脹符預期，減息預期獲鞏固

投資週記：2025年9月26日 華爾街與全球金融市場一週回顧

Disclaimer: The information provided here is intended for general knowledge and informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on your specific financial situation and needs, and after consultation with a qualified financial advisor.

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9月26日（星期五）市况

道瓊斯指數 升299.97點或0.65%，報46,247.29點。

標普500指數 升38.98點或0.59%，報6,643.70點。

納斯達克指數 升99.37點或0.44%，報22,484.07點。

紐約11月期油 收報65.72美元一桶，升0.74美元或1.1%。

紐約12月期金 收報3,809.0元一盎司，升37.9美元或1.0%。

比特幣 截至美東時間下午5時報109,536.42美元，升335.91美元或0.35%。

美國10年期國債息率 收報4.187厘，升1.5點子。

美國市場：週變動與趨勢（2025年9月20日至27日）

本周美國股市小幅收低，結束了一周震盪行情，此前一周中段有所回落，週五有所反彈。標普500指數下跌約0.3%，道瓊工業指數下跌0.1%，那斯達克指數下跌0.7%。 9月26日週五的上漲扭轉了連續三天的跌勢。特朗普的新威脅，包括對品牌藥品進口徵收100%關稅。特朗普於周四深夜在社交平台表示，凡未在美國興建生產設施的製藥企業，其進口藥品將被課以100%關稅，然而全球主要大廠位於歐洲和英國。特朗普亦稱，重型貨車及若干家具品類的進口關稅將加碼，並於10月1日生效，距今不足一週。

投資人仔細分析了8月公佈的個人消費支出(PCE)數據，該數據基本上符合預期，增強了聯準會降息的前景，同時通膨風險保持不變。市場也對美國新的關稅公告做出了反應，特定產業的股票出現了漲跌。美國國債殖利率維持在窄幅區間波動。

本週的低迷表現凸顯了市場對大型科技股和人工智慧股的持續關注，而小型股和週期性板塊則表現落後。市場廣度漲跌互現，羅素2000指數偶爾跑輸大盤。

## 主要股票走勢

受近期強勁業績和持續的資料中心需求提振，英偉達公司 (NVDA) 繼續備受關注。市場評論從持續樂觀到消化漲幅後短期盤整的呼聲不一。本月公佈的公司文件和新聞突顯了資料中心和Blackwell產品的收​​入成長。

蘋果 (AAPL) 本週發布了iPhone 17系列，吸引了媒體、消費者和零售商對該公司及其供應商的季節性關注。產品週期持續驅動市場情緒。

卡車和工業類股，如帕卡公司 (Paccar Inc.) 和戴姆勒卡車公司 (Daimler Truck)，對關稅消息的反應不一——一些公司股價因國內銷售保護而上漲，而另一些則因供應鏈或出口威脅而走弱。

製藥公司以及歐盟/日本出口商因美國擬議的藥品關稅而成為頭條新聞。人們的反應不一：暗示限製或豁免令市場有所緩解，但範圍尚不明朗的市場不確定性加劇。

## 政策與經濟背景

9月降息後，聯準會的寬鬆路徑仍是核心。個人消費支出（PCE）通膨維持穩定，強化了進一步降息的可能性，但持續的通膨仍帶來風險。

川普政府對藥品、重型卡車和家具徵收的新關稅引發了關於行業影響及其澄清的爭論。歐盟和日本面臨對美國藥品進口徵收15%的上限；其他國家則面臨更高的關稅。

英偉達佔據各大媒體頭條，強勁的資料中心營收和季度業績推動了人工智慧交易。

蒙特婁銀行將標普500指數2025年底的目標點位上調至7000點，理由是聯準會降息和穩健的獲利。

華爾街策略師們對聯準會寬鬆環境下的高估值進行了辯論，其中一些人青睞優質股票和槓鈴式投資組合。

本週，布蘭特原油和西德克薩斯中質原油價格上漲，受供應情況發展（例如伊拉克基爾庫克-傑伊漢輸油管道重啟，短期內增加了原油產量）以及地緣政治因素的支撐。

伊拉克恢復了庫德人透過該管道向土耳其的石油出口。墨西哥國家石油公司（Pemex）8月出口量大幅下降，拉丁美洲能源數據好壞參半。

中國8月工業利潤反彈，預示製造業初步穩定。

歐洲央行9月維持政策利率不變，相對於聯準會採取了更為謹慎的立場。

抵押貸款利率維持高位，30年期固定利率平均值約為6.2%-6.3%，這給住房負擔能力帶來了壓力。

大型科技和人工智慧領域的領導者佔據主導地位，但分析師警告存在集中風險，並敦促投資者將投資分散到工業和資本支出受益領域。

市場研究和自營交易部門指出，在關稅驅動的貿易轉變下，短期內市場將轉向週期性股票和能源股。

在業績指引喜憂參半的情況下，英特爾和IBM等精選股票在財報季表現強勁，受催化劑驅動。

分析師指出，地緣政治和關稅是更廣泛預期中不斷上升的非經濟風險。

大宗商品和供應鏈產業（石油、採礦、材料）在正面的週期性反應下重新獲得關注。

投資者情緒：對聯準會降息持樂觀態度，但對估值和政策/關稅風險持謹慎態度。許多策略師更青睞優質和精選週期性股票。

## 高盛觀點

高盛本週的評論強調，對估值過高保持謹慎，同時對聯準會寬鬆政策帶來的周期末反彈保持建設性看法。該公司看好與人工智慧和資料中心投資相關的高品質成長，同時將投資多元化，投資於資本支出和人工智慧基礎設施受益領域（槓鈴策略）。

來自公開文章和影片的實用建議：如果聯準會降息，預期股票將獲得正收益，但要透過增持優質成長型股票和人工智慧/資本支出股來管理回撤風險；保持價值/週期性配置以應對經濟上行；如果風險集中，則使用選擇權或對沖等風險管理手段。

具體內容：高盛9月份的影片（例如，Shawn Tuteja 就市場如何擺脫經濟風險所做的報導）和市場脈搏報告強調了選擇性投資，而非一味買入並持有。

總結：聯準會的寬鬆政策利多風險資產，但並不能消除關稅、地緣政治等特殊風險。獲利不及預期。持有優質成長股，並精選週期性/資本支出類股票；避免過度集中投資。

## 對投資者的影響

### A. 宏觀經濟與政策影響

聯準會降息預期是關鍵的市場槓桿。穩定或下降的通膨應能支撐本益比和週期性復甦；通膨再度加速可能促使市場迅速重新定價。請相應地管理久期和流動性。

關稅加劇了政策/監管風險。本週關於製藥、卡車和廚具的公告給出口商和供應鏈帶來了不確定性——相比於敞口較大的進出口商，更青睞專注於國內市場或具有靈活策略的公司。

### B. 股票配置

集中風險持續存在，大型人工智慧領導企業（例如英偉達、微軟）帶來了超額回報，並且對特定公司新聞較為敏感。對投資組合進行壓力測試；如果集中投資，則考慮分散投資或對沖。

機會：週期性股票和與資本支出相關的公司（資料中心建設公司、工業和能源公司）可能受益於降息和支出激增——這是一種潛在的輪動投資。

### C. 固定收益與利率

短期政策預期占主導地位。長期收益率可能會因成長或供應方面的消息而波動；如果預期多次降息，久期敞口可能會帶來回報——但要警惕通膨衝擊。

### D. 可操作的投資者清單

- 對集中型投資組合進行壓力測試（重倉大型科技/人工智慧）。

- 審查供應鏈風險敞口－在關稅風險下重新評估製藥、汽車、家具和重型卡車供應商。

- 平衡成長/優質防禦性股票與精選週期性股票（資本支出受益者），與高盛的指導意見一致。

- 如果保單/關稅噪音激增，可以使用現金/短期債券作為備用資金。

- 關注即將發布的通膨數據和聯準會聲明——這些仍然是最重要的直接驅動因素。

- 聯準會謹慎的寬鬆政策意味著利率可能下降，但並非直線下降。

- 持續的通膨（核心個人消費支出接近3%）表示不會倉促升息，但市場可能圍繞數據發布波動。

- 強勢美元對跨國公司獲利和新興市場帶來壓力，導致全球經濟趨緊。

### 市場動態

- 窄幅波動：大多數板塊下跌，只有少數防禦性板塊堅挺，預示著反彈脆弱。

- 科技/人工智慧備受關注：甲骨文和特斯拉股價下跌，凸顯了人們對高估值和短期人工智慧貨幣化的質疑。

- 轉向小型股和價值股：晨星和高盛指出，隨著投資人逢低買入，被低估的領域（小型股、價值股、房地產、能源、醫療保健）可能會跑贏大盤。

### 投資者情緒

消費者信心減弱和通膨預期上升表明家庭持謹慎態度，這可能會抑制可自由支配的支出。

波動率飆升（波動率指數上升，市場廣度惡化）表明，在10月市場動盪之前，對沖活動活躍。

### 全球溢出效應

美元和美國殖利率走強可能會對新興市場造成壓力（例如，印度的FPI債券資金外流）。

全球債務高企和保護主義加劇了脆弱性，放大了美國措施對海外的影響。

能源和人工智慧基礎設施需求（資料中心、電網壓力）成為跨境主題。

## 建議

預計10月市場波動：歷史上波動較大，尤其是在美元走強和聯準會政策不確定性的影響下。

多元化投資是關鍵：過度依賴大型科技公司會加劇風險；小型股、價值股和精選防禦性股票可以平衡風險。

關注聯準會的基調：通膨和勞動力數據將影響降息預期，直接影響本益比。

全球佈局：新興市場股票持有者應關注美元走強帶來的貨幣和資金流動風險。

主題投資：儘管短期內市場波動，但能源轉型、人工智慧基礎設施和醫療保健領域仍保持結構性順風。

市場正處於轉型期——從科技股引領的窄幅上漲，轉向更廣闊、更動盪的市場格局。聯準會的謹慎態度、持續的通膨和美元的強勢意味著投資者應做好應對衝擊的準備，同時關注被低估的行業機會。

Goldman Sachs: Analysts raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 6,800 from 6,600, citing optimistic GDP pricing at 1.9% for 2026 and AI as a macro booster. They recommend buying gold and commodities as hedges against inflation and volatility, alongside three key areas: tech consolidation plays, value stocks in financials, and M&A-driven industrials. Outlook emphasizes industry mergers for growth, with a bullish tilt on equities despite September liquidity challenges.

JPMorgan: The firm predicts US stocks will continue outperforming Europe in 2025, driven by exceptionalism and dollar strength, with a 40% recession chance (down from 60%). Favorite picks include high-conviction names like a specialty finance platform (strong earnings beats) and global banks with shareholder returns; they forecast more all-time highs in large caps. Advice: Focus on growth-income balance in cautious portfolios, targeting 7% upside in select overweight stocks like those in tech services.

Morgan Stanley: CIO Mike Wilson sees a "new bull market" underway, with moderate growth and bumpy disinflation supporting monetary easing beyond expectations. They favor a 60/20/20 portfolio (equities/fixed income/alternatives, including gold as an inflation hedge). September commentary highlights lowered S&P targets to 6,300 amid valuations, but advises overweight in metals/mining (bullish gold rally) and selective tech; central view: Policy outpaces markets for upside in 2025.

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U.S. Stocks Slip Slightly as Investors Weigh Tariffs and Inflation Data

U.S. stock indexes closed the week modestly lower, capping a volatile period marked by a midweek retreat and a Friday rebound. The S&P 500 fell about 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.7%. Friday's gains, on Sept. 26, reversed three straight days of losses.

Investors parsed August's personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) data, which largely met expectations—bolstering prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts while leaving inflation risks intact. Markets also reacted to new U.S. tariff announcements, creating sector-specific winners and losers. Treasury yields remained in a tight range.

The week's lackluster performance highlighted ongoing focus on large-cap tech and AI stocks, with small-caps and cyclical sectors lagging. Market breadth was mixed, and the Russell 2000 occasionally underperformed.

Key Stock Movements

Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) remained in the spotlight, buoyed by strong recent results and sustained data-center demand. Commentary ranged from continued optimism to calls for short-term consolidation amid digested gains. Company filings and news this month underscored revenue growth in data centers and Blackwell products.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) unveiled its iPhone 17 series this week, drawing seasonal attention from media, consumers, and retailers to the company and its suppliers. Product cycles continue to drive market sentiment.

Truck and industrial names like Paccar Inc. and Daimler Truck saw mixed reactions to tariff news—some rose on domestic-sales protection, while others weakened due to supply-chain or export threats.

Pharma firms and EU/Japan exporters faced headlines on proposed U.S. drug tariffs. Reactions varied: relief amid hints of limits or exemptions, but uncertainty grew where scope remained unclear.

Policy and Economic Backdrop

Post-September rate cut, the Fed's easing path stays central. PCE inflation held steady, reinforcing high odds for further cuts, though sticky inflation sustains risks.

The Trump administration's new tariffs on drugs, heavy trucks, and furniture sparked debates over industry impacts and clarifications. EU and Japan face 15% caps on U.S. drug imports; others confront higher duties.

Nvidia dominated headlines, with robust data-center revenue and quarterly performance fueling AI trades.

Bank of Montreal raised its S&P 500 year-end 2025 target to 7,000, citing Fed cuts and solid earnings.

Wall Street strategists debated lofty valuations in a Fed-easing environment, with some favoring quality stocks and barbell portfolios.

Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude rose this week, supported by supply developments—like Iraq's Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline restart adding short-term barrels—and geopolitics.

Iraq resumed Kurdish oil exports to Turkey via the pipeline. Mexico's Pemex saw sharp August export declines, yielding mixed Latin American energy data.

China's August industrial profits rebounded, signaling early manufacturing stability.

The European Central Bank held policy rates in September, adopting a more cautious stance relative to the Fed.

Mortgage rates stayed elevated, with 30-year fixed averages around 6.2%-6.3%, weighing on housing affordability.

Big tech and AI leaders held sway, but analysts warned of concentration risks, urging diversification into industrials and capex beneficiaries.

Market research and prop desks noted short-term rotations toward cyclicals and energy amid tariff-driven trade shifts.

Earnings season featured strong showings from select stocks like Intel and IBM, driven by catalysts, amid mixed guidance.

Analysts flagged geopolitics and tariffs as rising non-economic risks in broader expectations.

Commodities and supply-chain sectors—oil, mining, materials—regained focus with positive cyclical responses.

Investor sentiment: Optimistic on Fed cuts but cautious on valuations and policy/tariff risks. Many strategists prefer quality plus select cyclicals.

Goldman Sachs Perspective

Goldman Sachs commentary this week emphasized caution on elevated valuations while maintaining a constructive view on late-cycle rebounds from Fed easing. The firm favors high-quality growth linked to AI and data-center investments, alongside diversification into capex and AI-infrastructure beneficiaries (barbell strategy).

Practical advice from public articles and videos: If Fed cuts materialize, expect positive equity returns but manage drawdown risks by overweighting quality growth and AI/capex stocks; maintaining value/cyclical allocations for economic upticks; and using risk management like options or hedges if concentrated.

Specific content: Goldman's September videos (e.g., Shawn Tuteja on markets shrugging off economic risks) and market-pulse reports stressed selectivity over broad buy-and-hold.

Bottom line: Fed easing benefits risk assets but doesn't erase idiosyncratic risks like tariffs, geopolitics, or earnings misses. Hold quality growth and select cyclicals/capex plays; avoid overconcentration.

Implications for Investors

A. Macro and Policy Effects

Fed cut expectations are a key market lever. Stable or falling inflation should support multiples and cyclical recovery; renewed acceleration could prompt swift repricing. Manage duration and liquidity accordingly.

Tariffs heighten policy/regulatory risks. This week's announcements on pharma, trucks, and kitchenware add uncertainty for exporters and supply chains—favoring domestic-focused or flexible firms over exposed importers/exporters.

B. Equity Allocation

Concentration risks persist, with mega AI leaders (NVDA, Microsoft) driving outsized returns and sensitivity to firm-specific news. Stress-test portfolios; consider diversification or hedging if concentrated.

Opportunities: Cyclicals and capex-linked firms (data-center builders, industrials, energy) could benefit from cuts and spending surges—a potential rotation play.

C. Fixed Income and Rates

Short-term policy expectations dominate. Longer yields may fluctuate on growth or supply news; duration exposure could pay if multiple cuts are anticipated—but beware inflation shocks.

D. Actionable Investor Checklist

• Stress-test concentrated portfolios (heavy in big tech/AI).
• Review supply-chain exposures—reassess pharma, autos, furniture, heavy-truck suppliers amid tariff risks.
• Balance growth/quality defensives with select cyclicals (capex beneficiaries), echoing Goldman's guidance.
• Use cash/short-term bonds as dry powder if policy/tariff noise spikes.
• Monitor upcoming inflation data and Fed communications—these remain top direct drivers.
• Fed's cautious easing implies rates may fall, but not linearly.
• Persistent inflation (core PCE near 3%) suggests no rushed hikes, yet markets may swing around data releases.
• Strong dollar pressures multinational earnings and emerging markets, tightening global conditions.

Market Dynamics

• Narrowing breadth: Most sectors fell, with only pockets of defensives holding firm—signaling fragile rallies.
• Tech/AI scrutiny: Oracle and Tesla drops highlight doubts on high valuations and near-term AI monetization.
• Shift to small-caps and value: Morningstar and Goldman note undervalued areas (small-caps, value, real estate, energy, health care) may outperform as investors hunt bargains.

Investor Sentiment

Weaker consumer confidence and rising inflation expectations signal household caution, potentially curbing discretionary spending.

Volatility spikes (VIX up, breadth worsening) indicate active hedging ahead of October turbulence.

Global Spillovers

Stronger dollar and U.S. yields may strain emerging markets (e.g., India's FPI bond outflows).

Elevated global debt and protectionism amplify vulnerabilities—magnifying U.S. moves' overseas impact.

Energy and AI infrastructure demands (data centers, grid strain) emerge as cross-border themes.

Goldman Sachs: Analysts raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 6,800 from 6,600, citing optimistic GDP pricing at 1.9% for 2026 and AI as a macro booster. They recommend buying gold and commodities as hedges against inflation and volatility, alongside three key areas: tech consolidation plays, value stocks in financials, and M&A-driven industrials. Outlook emphasizes industry mergers for growth, with a bullish tilt on equities despite September liquidity challenges.

JPMorgan: The firm predicts US stocks will continue outperforming Europe in 2025, driven by exceptionalism and dollar strength, with a 40% recession chance (down from 60%). Favorite picks include high-conviction names like a specialty finance platform (strong earnings beats) and global banks with shareholder returns; they forecast more all-time highs in large caps. Advice: Focus on growth-income balance in cautious portfolios, targeting 7% upside in select overweight stocks like those in tech services.

Morgan Stanley: CIO Mike Wilson sees a "new bull market" underway, with moderate growth and bumpy disinflation supporting monetary easing beyond expectations. They favor a 60/20/20 portfolio (equities/fixed income/alternatives, including gold as an inflation hedge). September commentary highlights lowered S&P targets to 6,300 amid valuations, but advises overweight in metals/mining (bullish gold rally) and selective tech; central view: Policy outpaces markets for upside in 2025.

Recommendations

Expect October volatility: Historically choppy, especially with dollar strength and Fed uncertainty.

Diversification is key: Overreliance on big tech heightens risks; small-caps, value, and select defensives offer balance.

Watch Fed tone: Inflation and labor data will sway cut expectations, directly hitting multiples.

Global positioning: EM equity holders should eye currency and flow risks from dollar strength.

Thematic bets: Despite near-term swings, energy transition, AI infrastructure, and health care retain structural tailwinds.

Markets are in transition—from narrow tech-led rallies to broader, more volatile terrain. Fed caution, sticky inflation, and dollar strength mean investors should brace for shocks while eyeing undervalued sectors for opportunities.