投資週記 March 22, 2025 每週市場更新

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 投資週記 March 22, 2025 每週市場更新

Disclaimer: The information provided here is intended for general knowledge and informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on your specific financial situation and needs, and after consultation with a qualified financial advisor.

*本網頁屬個人博客，一切言論純粹是表達本人的個人意見或經驗分享，無論在任何情況下，不應被視為投資建議，也不構成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦， 本人亦無法保證部落格內容的真實性和完整性。 讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行求證和分析, 讀者一切的投資決定以及該投資決定引致的收益或損失，概與本人無涉。​

The past week in U.S. stock markets and global finance was characterized by modest gains across major indices, mixed performances in key sectors, and ongoing geopolitical and economic developments influencing investor sentiment.​

U.S. Stock Market Performance

All three major U.S. stock indices recorded gains:​

  • S&P 500 Index: Increased by 0.08% on Friday, culminating in a weekly gain of 0.51%.​

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose by 0.08% on Friday, ending the week up 1.20%.​

  • Nasdaq Composite: Advanced 0.52% on Friday, with a modest weekly increase of 0.17%.​

  • Nasdaq-100 Index: Gained 0.39% on Friday, resulting in a weekly rise of 0.25%.​

  • Russell 2000 Index: Declined 0.56% on Friday but managed a weekly gain of 0.64%.​

  • CBOE Volatility Index (VIX): Decreased by 2.58% on Friday to 19.29, marking a substantial weekly decline of 11.39%, indicating reduced market volatility.​

Performance of Major Technology Stocks

The "Magnificent Seven" tech companies exhibited mixed results:​

  • Tesla (TSLA): Surged 5.25% on Friday but recorded a slight weekly decline of 0.53%, marking its ninth consecutive week of losses.​

  • Apple (AAPL): Increased by 1.95% on Friday, achieving a weekly gain of 2.24% after three weeks of declines.​

  • Meta Platforms (META): Rose 1.75% on Friday but experienced a weekly drop of 1.87%, its fifth consecutive week of losses.​

  • Microsoft (MSFT): Gained 1.14% on Friday, ending the week up 0.69%.​

  • Alphabet (GOOGL): Edged up 0.73% on Friday but saw a weekly decrease of 0.91%.​

  • Amazon (AMZN): Increased by 0.65% on Friday, with a weekly decline of 0.88%.​

  • NVIDIA (NVDA): Fell 0.70% on Friday and dropped 3.26% over the week.​

Collectively, the "Magnificent Seven" index rose approximately 1.1% on Friday but posted a weekly decline of about 0.4%.​

Semiconductor Sector

The semiconductor industry faced challenges:​

  • Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: Declined 0.94% on Friday, with a weekly loss of 0.89%.​

  • Micron Technology (MU): Plummeted 8.04% following its Q2 earnings report, which showed a twofold increase in data center revenue. However, its Q3 revenue guidance exceeded expectations, while gross margin guidance fell short.​

  • Wolfspeed (WOLF): Surged 9.58% on Friday, standing out in the sector.​

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks

AI-related stocks had varied performances:​

  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Jumped 7.8% on Friday.​

  • Palantir Technologies (PLTR): Increased by 4.09%.​

  • BullFrog AI Holdings (BFAI): Declined 2.22%.​

Chinese Stocks

Chinese companies listed in the U.S. generally declined:​

  • Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index: Fell 1.73% on Friday, with a weekly loss of 2.31%.​

  • Yatsen Holding (YSG): Dropped 13.33%.​

  • Kingsoft Cloud (KC): Decreased by 6.37%.​

  • Pinduoduo (PDD): Declined 3.27%.​

  • Xiaomi Corp ADR (XIACY): Fell 3.06%.​

  • Miniso Group (MNSO): Plunged 8.9% despite a 22.7% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4 and record-high gross margins; the company also surpassed 3,000 overseas stores.​

  • Meituan ADR (MPNGY): Dropped 5.11% even as profits nearly tripled in Q4, driven by strong core business performance and narrowed losses in new ventures, alongside expansion into the Middle East market.​

  • NIO Inc. (NIO): Decreased by 4.46% after reporting a 15.2% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4 but a full-year net loss of ¥22.4 billion.​

Other Notable Companies

  • FedEx (FDX): Declined 6.45% after the company lowered its full-year performance and capital expenditure forecasts.​

  • Boeing (BA): Gained 3.06% following statements by former President Trump suggesting an imminent ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, with Boeing producing sixth-generation fighter jets.​

European Markets

European stocks experienced declines:​

  • STOXX 600 Index: Fell 0.60% on Friday but managed a weekly gain of 0.56%.​

  • Eurozone STOXX 50 Index: Decreased by 0.50% on Friday, with a weekly rise of 0.36%.​

  • Germany's DAX: Declined 0.47% on Friday, ending the week down 0.41%.

美國股市表現

本周美國主要股指漲跌互現：

道瓊工業指數：上漲 1.2%，創下兩個多月以來最大單週漲幅。

標普 500 指數：上漲 0.51%，有效阻止了連續四週的下跌。

那斯達克指數：小幅上漲 0.17%，也打破了四周的跌勢。
華爾街日報

主要市場驅動因素

本週的市場動態受多種因素影響：

貿易政策發展：川普總統宣布將於 4 月 2 日開始實施“互惠關稅”，這帶來了不確定性。不過，他表示在實施上可能具有彈性，這緩解了一些投資者的擔憂。

經濟指標：本週經濟數據相對較少，投資者將關注即將發布的報告以了解更清晰的經濟方向。

公司獲利及指引：

耐吉：該公司預計銷售額將出現兩位數的下滑，且需要加快清庫存，導致其股價下跌 5%。

聯邦快遞：該公司下調了其預期，理由是“美國工業前景疲軟且不確定”，導致其股價下跌 6.5%。

產業表現與值得關注的股票走勢

科技：特斯拉執行長馬斯克宣布今年的 Optimus 機器人生產目標為 5,000 台，並呼籲員工保留股份，強調該公司在自動化技術方面的進步，隨後特斯拉股價飆升 5.3%。

航空航太與國防：川普總統宣布波音公司獲得即將推出的 F-47 戰鬥機的合約後，股價上漲了 3.1%。

半導體：受摩根大通上調評級的推動，超微半導體公司 (AMD) 的股價上漲 7.8%，摩根大通強調了 Nvidia 晶片出貨量增加預期帶來的好處。

全球金融市場

歐洲：歐洲市場走勢與美國相似，主要指數上漲。自川普總統當選以來，德國 DAX 指數上漲了約 14%，凸顯出儘管存在貿易政策不確定性，投資者仍具有韌性。

亞洲：亞洲市場表現參差不齊。雖然一些指數上漲，但對潛在貿易緊張局勢及其對出口導向型經濟體的影響的擔憂抑制了漲幅。


我們的內部分析與觀察到的市場行為一致：

投資人情緒：儘管系統性基金採取看跌立場，但散戶投資人仍繼續表現出強勁的買進活動，尤其是對特斯拉等股票。這一趨勢凸顯了個人投資者普遍存在的「逢低買入」心態。
商業內幕

市場流動性：交易量激增，週五達到超過 210 億股，為 2025 年以來的最高水平，顯示市場參與度和流動性增強。

建議

根據當前市場狀況：

保持多樣化：確保您的投資組合在各個行業和資產類別中保持良好的多樣化，以減輕與市場波動相關的潛在風險。

監測貿易政策發展：隨時了解貿易談判和政策變化，因為這些可能對全球市場產生重大影響。

評估個股：對散戶活動活躍的股票（如特斯拉）要謹慎。雖然該公司的創新前景看好，但近期散戶投資的激增值得仔細考慮估值和潛在波動。

關注基本面：優先投資資產負債表強勁、獲利持續成長、商業模式靈活、能夠抵禦經濟波動的公司。

Our targeted companies and the rationale behind each:

1. Core Technology Leaders

  • Apple (AAPL) & Microsoft (MSFT):
    Both companies consistently generate robust free cash flow, maintain low debt levels, and exhibit strong earnings growth. Their diversified revenue streams—from hardware and services (Apple) to cloud computing and enterprise software (Microsoft)—provide a solid buffer against economic volatility.

  • Alphabet (GOOGL):
    With a dominant position in digital advertising and a growing cloud business, Alphabet remains resilient. Its strategic investments in AI and data-driven platforms further bolster its competitive moat.

2. Defensive Consumer Staples

  • Procter & Gamble (PG) & Coca-Cola (KO):
    Companies in the consumer staples sector are less sensitive to economic cycles. Their strong brand recognition, pricing power, and recurring revenue models make them attractive for portfolio stability during periods of market stress.

3. Healthcare

  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) & Pfizer (PFE):
    The healthcare sector offers defensive characteristics with consistent demand regardless of economic conditions. Both companies have strong balance sheets, diversified product lines, and robust R&D pipelines, making them well-suited for long-term growth and resilience.

 

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