投資週記 March 30, 2025 每週市場更新
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This week, financial markets experienced significant volatility, marked by notable declines across major U.S. indices, driven by escalating trade tensions, persistent inflation concerns, and weakening consumer sentiment. Below is a comprehensive overview of the key developments:
Major Indices Performance:
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S&P 500: Fell 2% on Friday, closing at 5,580.94. Over the week, it declined by 1.5%, bringing the year-to-date loss to 5.1%.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average: Dropped 1.7% on Friday to 41,583.90, ending the week down 1% and reflecting a 2.3% decline year-to-date. AP News
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Nasdaq Composite: Decreased 2.7% on Friday, closing at 17,322.99. The weekly loss was 2.6%, contributing to a 10.3% decrease year-to-date.
Key Drivers Behind Market Movements:
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Trade Tensions: President Donald Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on auto imports intensified fears of a global trade war, leading to broad market sell-offs.
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Inflation Concerns: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose more than expected by 0.4% in February, pushing the year-over-year figure to 2.8%, above the Fed's 2% target. WSJ
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Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan's survey indicated consumer sentiment at its lowest since 2022, heightening fears of reduced spending and potential stagflation—a scenario of stagnant growth coupled with rising inflation.
Sector Performance Highlights and Significant Stock Movements:
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Technology: The "Magnificent 7" tech giants experienced broad declines, with the index dropping 2.95% to 144.48 points, marking a weekly loss of 2.95%. Notable movements include:
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Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): Fell 4.88% on Friday to $154.33, culminating in a 5.89% weekly decline—the worst since February 7.
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Meta Platforms Inc. (META): Decreased 4.29% on Friday to $576.74, with a weekly loss of 3.27%.
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Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN): Dropped 4.29% on Friday to $192.72, ending the week down 1.78%.
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Tesla Inc. (TSLA): Declined 3.51% on Friday to $263.55 but posted a weekly gain of 5.97%, breaking a nine-week losing streak.
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Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): Lost 3.02% on Friday to $378.80, with a weekly decrease of 3.18%.
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Apple Inc. (AAPL): Slipped 2.66% on Friday to $217.90, nearly flat for the week with a 0.17% decline.
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NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): Edged down 1.58% on Friday to $109.67, accumulating a 6.82% weekly loss.
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Semiconductors: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 2.95%. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) fell 3.22% to $103.22, and NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) declined 1.58% to $109.67. Wolfspeed Inc. (WOLF) plunged 51.86% to $2.59, marking its worst single-day performance since its IPO, with a weekly loss of 59.72%.
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Retail: Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) shares plummeted 14.19% on Friday to $293.06 after issuing a weaker-than-expected revenue growth forecast, citing reduced consumer spending amid economic uncertainties. Investopedia
Global Financial Markets Update:
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Europe: European markets faced downward pressure due to concerns over escalating trade tensions and their potential impact on the global economy. The announcement of U.S. auto tariffs added to the apprehension, affecting major European automakers. Reuters
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Asia: Asian markets mirrored the global downturn, with significant declines in Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. The heightened trade tensions and inflationary pressures contributed to the cautious sentiment across the region.
Commodities and Safe-Haven Assets:
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Gold: Prices surged to a record high, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid market volatility and inflation concerns. This marks gold's best quarterly performance since 1986. Reuters
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Oil: Prices remained relatively flat as traders weighed potential supply constraints against the economic implications of new tariffs and a slowing global economy.
U.S. Dollar: The dollar weakened against major currencies, influenced by hotter-than-expected inflation data and trade policy uncertainties.
Conclusion:
The past week underscored the financial markets' sensitivity to geopolitical developments, economic data, and corporate earnings. Investors are advised to maintain a cautious approach, closely monitoring policy changes, inflation trends, and consumer behavior to navigate the evolving landscape effectively.
本週，受貿易緊張局勢升級、通膨擔憂持續以及消費者信心減弱等影響，金融市場大幅波動，美國主要股指均大幅下跌。以下是主要發展的全面概述：
主要指數表現：
標普 500 指數：週五下跌 2%，收在 5,580.94 點。本週，該股下跌了 1.5%，今年迄今的跌幅已達 5.1%。
道瓊工業指數：週五下跌 1.7% 至 41,583.90 點，當週下跌 1%，今年迄今下跌 2.3%。
那斯達克指數：週五下跌2.7%，收在17,322.99點。當週下跌 2.6%，導致今年迄今下跌 10.3%。
市場走勢的關鍵驅動因素：
貿易緊張：總統唐納德·川普宣布對汽車進口徵收 25% 的關稅，加劇了人們對全球貿易戰的擔憂，導致市場大規模拋售。 號
通膨擔憂：聯準會首選的通膨指標－個人消費支出（PCE）物價指數 2 月上漲超過預期 0.4%，年增 2.8%，高於聯準會 2% 的目標。華爾街日報
消費者信心：密西根大學的調查顯示，消費者信心處於 2022 年以來的最低水平，加劇了人們對支出減少和潛在滯脹（即成長停滯加上通膨上升的情況）的擔憂。 號
板塊表現亮點及重大股票變動：
科技：「七巨頭」科技股普遍下跌，A股指數下跌2.95%，至144.48點，週跌幅達2.95%。值得注意的動向包括：
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)：週五下跌 4.88% 至 154.33 美元，週跌幅達 5.89%——為 2 月 7 日以來的最大跌幅。號
Meta Platforms Inc. (META)：週五下跌 4.29% 至 576.74 美元，週跌幅為 3.27%。號
亞馬遜公司 (AMZN)：週五下跌 4.29% 至 192.72 美元，本週下跌 1.78%。號
特斯拉公司 (TSLA)：週五下跌 3.51% 至 263.55 美元，但周漲幅為 5.97%，打破了連續九週的下跌趨勢。號
微軟公司 (MSFT)：週五下跌 3.02% 至 378.80 美元，週跌幅為 3.18%。號
蘋果 (AAPL)：週五下跌 2.66% 至 217.90 美元，本週基本持平，下跌 0.17%。號
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)：週五小幅下跌 1.58% 至 109.67 美元，本週累計下跌 6.82%。號
半導體：費城半導體指數下跌2.95%。超微半導體公司 (AMD) 下跌 3.22% 至 103.22 美元，NVIDIA 公司 (NVDA) 下跌 1.58% 至 109.67 美元。 Wolfspeed Inc. (WOLF) 暴跌 51.86% 至 2.59 美元，創下自 IPO 以來最差單日表現，週跌幅達 59.72%。號
零售：Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) 股價週五暴跌 14.19% 至 293.06 美元，此前該公司發布了低於預期的收入成長預測，理由是經濟不確定性導致消費者支出減少。
全球金融市場更新：
歐洲：由於擔心貿易緊張局勢升級及其對全球經濟的潛在影響，歐洲市場面臨下行壓力。美國宣布徵收汽車關稅加劇了人們的擔憂，影響了歐洲主要汽車製造商。路透社
亞洲：亞洲市場反映了全球經濟衰退，日本、韓國和泰國的衰退幅度顯著。貿易緊張局勢加劇和通膨壓力導致該地區的情緒謹慎。 號
大宗商品和避險資產：
黃金：受市場動盪和通膨擔憂加劇導致對避險資產的需求增加推動，黃金價格飆升至歷史新高。這是自 1986 年以來黃金表現最好的季度。路透社
石油：由於交易商權衡了潛在的供應限制與新關稅和全球經濟放緩的經濟影響，價格保持相對穩定。 號
美元：受通膨數據強於預期及貿易政策不確定性的影響，美元兌主要貨幣走弱。
本週港股恒生指數下跌152點。全球股市都在觀望特朗普下週三的重要宣佈，投資者採取謹慎態度，減持倉位。此策略既可作為對沖潛在市場波動的手段，也可在對等關稅引發市場下跌時，提供低價買入的機會。
美國股市納斯達克綜合指數週三急挫2%，週四再跌逾0.5%，迅速回補了週一留下的上升缺口。市場越來越擔心由人工智能推動的科技股上漲正在形成泡沫，可能導致人工智能數據中心供應過剩。TD Cowen分析師報告稱，微軟已放棄在美國和歐洲建設約2千兆瓦電力容量的新數據中心項目。此舉歸因於人工智能計算集群的供應過剩。今年二月早些時候，微軟還披露了取消美國數據中心租約的消息，表明其對人工智能發展持謹慎態度。TD Cowen的結論是，這些取消和推遲表明，相對於當前的需求預測，數據中心建設存在供應過剩。阿里巴巴主席蔡崇信本週也呼應了這些擔憂，警告稱數據中心建設可能存在泡沫，可能會超過對人工智能服務的需求。
納斯達克指數的壓力部分源於對數據中心供應過多的擔憂。為人工智能數據中心伺服器提供冷卻系統的美國公司Vertiv（VRT）股價大幅下跌，自一月中旬的峰值以來已腰斬，幾乎抹去了自去年九月以來的漲幅。另一隻備受關注的人工智能概念股AppLovin（App）在過去兩到三個月內股價也下跌了約50%。在二月份公佈強勁收益後股價達到525美元的高點後，僅在14個交易日內就暴跌至258美元的低點。
沽空機構如Fuzzy Panda Research、Culper Research，以及最近的渾水研究（Muddy Waters Research）都批評了AppLovin。渾水研究聲稱，AppLovin的廣告策略「系統性地」違反了應用程式商店的服務條款，在未經用戶同意的情況下向用戶投放目標廣告。隨著人工智能泡沫可能破裂，更多此類科技股的急劇下跌可能會出現。科技股投資者謹慎行事。