投資週記 March 8, 2025 標準普爾 500 去年九月以來最差週
投資週記 March 8, 2025 每週市場更新
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Weekly U.S. Stock Market Recap: Volatility, Economic Data, and Investment Insights
The U.S. stock market showed signs of recovery but remained volatile as key economic data fell short of expectations. The latest non-farm payroll report revealed weaker-than-expected job growth, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged signs of economic weakness, warning that economic reforms could bring short-term pain. She also dismissed the notion of a so-called "Trump Put," where the government would step in with market-supporting measures in times of downturns.
The three major indices initially fluctuated but strengthened in afternoon trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 222 points. However, after sharp midweek declines, all three indices ended the week with losses. The S&P 500 recorded its worst weekly performance since September, while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have now posted losses in two of the past three weeks, the first such occurrence since August. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that there is no urgency to cut interest rates.
Market Performance
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +222.64 points (+0.52%) to 42,801.72. Weekly decline: -2.37%
S&P 500 Index: +31.68 points (+0.55%) to 5,770.20. Weekly decline: -3.10%
Nasdaq Composite: +126.97 points (+0.70%) to 18,196.22. Weekly decline: -3.45%
Crude Oil (April futures): +$0.68 (+1.0%) to $67.04 per barrel. Weekly decline: -3.9%
Gold (April futures): +$19.50 (+0.7%) to $2,920.16 per ounce
Bitcoin: -$2,784.67 (-3.04%) to $86,487.16
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.265%, up 5.5 basis points
Tech Sector Performance: Mixed Gains and Heavy Losses
The "Seven Sisters of Technology" had mixed movements on Friday, with some stocks attempting to recover from sharp declines throughout the week:
Nvidia (NVDA): +1.92% Friday, -9.79% weekly
Apple (AAPL): +1.59% Friday, -1.15% weekly
Google (GOOGL): +0.88% Friday, +2.10% weekly
Tesla (TSLA): -0.3% Friday, -10.35% weekly
Meta (META): -0.36% Friday, -6.37% weekly
Amazon (AMZN): -0.72% Friday, -6.14% weekly
Microsoft (MSFT): -0.9% Friday, -0.93% weekly
Tesla's stock has erased all gains since the U.S. election in November 2024, retreating over 46% from its all-time high. Apple reportedly postponed its Siri AI upgrade to 2026 due to internal concerns over the technology's readiness.
Semiconductor Sector Shows Resilience
While the semiconductor industry faced pressure throughout the week, chip stocks rebounded on Friday. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 3.16% but ended the week down 2.88%.
Broadcom (AVGO): +8.64% Friday after strong Q2 guidance
Marvell Technology (MRVL): -1.99% Friday
Wolfspeed (WOLF): +18.06% Friday after confirming Q3 guidance and announcing layoffs to improve financial health
Chinese Stocks and Global Market Trends
Most U.S.-listed Chinese stocks saw gains this week, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closing up 0.47% on Friday and gaining 4.93% for the week.
NIO (NIO): +5.42%
Xpeng (XPEV): +6.16%
Li Auto (LI): +5.30%
Bilibili (BILI): +8.17%
Zeekr (ZK): +4.5%
Baidu (BIDU): +1.51% (announced a $2 billion convertible bond issuance)
Economic Data: Nonfarm Payrolls, Treasury Yields, and Fed Policy
The latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed a weaker-than-expected gain of 151,000 jobs in February, with unemployment rising to 4.1%, its highest level since November 2023. The disappointing job data briefly caused U.S. Treasury yields to decline, but Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reassured markets that the economy remains strong.
Powell suggested that interest rate cuts would not be rushed despite market expectations of a 75 basis point rate reduction in 2024. Following his speech, U.S. bonds reversed gains, stocks rebounded, and the U.S. dollar pared losses. However, the U.S. Dollar Index still experienced its worst weekly decline in two years.
Geopolitical and Trade Policy Developments
Tariffs and geopolitical tensions further weighed on investor sentiment:
Trump administration considering major sanctions on Russia, causing European energy markets to spike.
New tariffs imposed on Canadian lumber and dairy products led to declines in Canadian stocks and currency.
The S&P 500 fell 3.1% for the week, its biggest weekly drop since September 2024.
Stock Market Index Performance
The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher on Friday but suffered steep losses for the week:
S&P 500: +0.55% Friday, -3.10% weekly
Dow Jones: +0.52% Friday, -2.37% weekly
Nasdaq Composite: +0.70% Friday, -3.41% weekly
Nasdaq 100: +0.74% Friday, -3.27% weekly
Russell 2000: +0.43% Friday, -4.05% weekly
VIX Index: -6.03% Friday, +19.05% weekly
Sector ETF Performance
Sector ETFs showed mixed results:
Semiconductor ETF: +2.42% Friday, -3.30% weekly
Energy ETF: +1.71% Friday
Financial ETF: -0.53% Friday
Global Aviation ETF: -0.99% Friday, -5.77% weekly (fourth consecutive weekly decline)
Banking ETF: -6.26% weekly
Technology ETF: -3.10% weekly
Investment Research and Strategy Insights
Nasdaq plans to introduce 24-hour trading by late 2026 after receiving regulatory approval, following similar moves by Cboe Global Markets and the New York Stock Exchange.
Hedge funds faced significant losses in February, with major players like Millennium and Citadel Investments posting negative returns. Overcrowded trades in healthcare and technology stocks contributed to the decline.
Jain Global: -1%
Millennium: -1.3%
Citadel Investments: -1.7%
PivotalPath Multi-Strategy Fund Index: +0.2%
Sector Highlights and Corporate Moves
Nvidia briefly fell below its early February support level of $114 before rebounding 2%, though it remains significantly lower, having lost over $1 trillion in market capitalization from its peak. Broadcom emerged as an investor favorite, rallying 8.6%. Meanwhile, Tesla extended its losing streak to seven consecutive weeks.
Retail giant Costco disappointed with its latest earnings report, tumbling 6.1%, while Walmart followed with a 3%decline. Eli Lilly also faced a near 5% drop.
Economic Indicators and Fed Policy
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 151,000 increase in non-farm payrolls for February, missing forecasts of 160,000. This came after January’s figure was revised downward to 125,000. Government job cuts totaled 10,000, while the retail sector shed 6,000 jobs. The healthcare sector led employment gains, adding 52,000 positions.
The unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%, slightly above market expectations. The number of unemployed individuals increased by 203,000 to 7.05 million, while total employment dropped by 588,000 to 163 million.
Treasury Secretary Yellen attributed these shifts to a “necessary detox period” as the government scales back spending. She acknowledged that the Biden-era economic expansion was largely driven by fiscal stimulus and that the economy must now transition to more organic growth. She defended Trump’s economic policies as a "necessary course correction" but dismissed the notion that the administration would intervene to support stock markets.
White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett countered concerns over the job report, arguing that the economy is not heading toward a recession. He emphasized that the decline in government jobs aligns with Trump’s policies to shrink federal employment while boosting private-sector manufacturing.
Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Developments
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline following Trump’s executive order establishing a national cryptocurrency reserve. However, this reserve will only contain assets seized from past enforcement actions and will not involve additional government purchases, leading to a market-wide crypto downturn.
Trade Wars and Market Sentiment
Trump’s aggressive trade policies continue to roil markets. After delaying tariffs on Mexico and Canada by one month, his administration is set to impose steel and aluminum tariffs globally starting April 2. Additionally, reciprocal tariffs will be levied, particularly targeting Latin American nations.
Warren Buffett has previously criticized Trump’s tariff strategies, stating that punitive tariffs could stoke inflation and harm consumers. Interestingly, Berkshire Hathaway recently sold its entire position in two S&P 500 ETFs, signaling caution about the unpredictable policy environment.
Global Capital Flows and Market Rotation
The weakening U.S. dollar is driving capital outflows, mirroring the trend seen in 2017. European and emerging markets stand to benefit from this shift, while the appeal of gold as a hedge against currency uncertainty is growing.
Investment strategies are adjusting to these macroeconomic shifts:
Long German mid-cap stocks (MDAX): Lower interest rates, fiscal stimulus, and potential geopolitical resolutions could drive a German equity rally.
Short bond proxies (UB/WN shorts): The impending surge in bond issuance is expected to trigger selling pressure on long-duration assets.
Long euro interest rate volatility (6m30y payer swaps, 3m10y straddles): Rising fiscal and geopolitical uncertainty is likely to increase long-term rate volatility in Europe.
Steepening of the euro yield curve (buy 2s30s, sell German ASW boxes): Markets may be underestimating the impact of European fiscal policy changes, which could push long-term rates higher.
Short Russell 2000 / Long Nasdaq: Small-cap stocks remain vulnerable to tighter financial conditions, whereas large-cap tech stocks are proving more resilient.
Long gold, short the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Trump’s economic policies favor a weaker dollar, which could further boost gold prices.
The Big Picture: Repricing the Trump Era
Trump’s return to office has ushered in an era of "policy-driven market pricing," where unpredictable tariffs, fiscal strategies, and geopolitical maneuvers create heightened volatility. With corporations hesitant to commit to long-term investments, market swings are likely to persist.
The bond market, in contrast, remains relatively calm, with credit spreads showing little sign of stress. However, this could change rapidly if economic conditions deteriorate further. Powell’s remarks suggest the Fed is willing to wait and assess Trump’s aggressive economic policies before adjusting interest rates.
Proprietary Investment Strategies and Stock Recommendations
Sector Rotation Strategy: With increasing volatility, we recommend rotating into defensive sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities.
Tech Buying Opportunity: The recent pullback in tech presents a selective buying opportunity in AI-driven semiconductor stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO).
Dividend Yield Strategy: With bond yields expected to stabilize, high-dividend stocks like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Procter & Gamble (PG) offer attractive risk-adjusted returns.
Long-Term Play: AI-driven cloud computing remains a strong structural growth theme, making Microsoft (MSFT) a core long-term holding.
Energy Exposure: As geopolitical risks rise, adding ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) to portfolios provides a hedge against supply disruptions.
Market Outlook and Final Thoughts
This week underscored the fragility of the current market environment, with rising volatility, geopolitical risks, and economic uncertainty driving stock movements. Going forward, we expect continued Fed policy scrutiny, AI sector dominance, and tech leadership to drive market trends. Investors should maintain a defensive yet opportunistic approach, balancing risk with high-quality growth stocks and defensive sectors.
Conclusion
Markets are grappling with a complex mix of economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and shifting investment strategies. While some investors see opportunities in European equities and gold, others remain wary of Trump’s unpredictable policy shifts. With tariffs, monetary policy, and corporate earnings all in flux, traders and investors must navigate an increasingly volatile landscape.
Caution is advised, but with strategic positioning, there are still plenty of opportunities in the market’s evolving cycle.
每週美國股市回顧：波動性、經濟數據和投資見解 美國股市出現復甦跡象，但由於關鍵經濟數據不如預期，市場仍波動不定。最新的非農就業報告顯示就業成長弱於預期，而美國財政部長耶倫承認經濟疲軟跡象，並警告經濟改革可能帶來短期痛苦。她還駁斥了所謂的「川普看跌期權」的概念，即政府在經濟低迷時期採取市場支持措施。
三大股指最初波動，但午後交易中有所走強，道瓊工業指數收盤上漲222點。然而，在周中大幅下跌之後，三大指數本週均以下跌收盤。標準普爾 500 指數創下自去年九月以來的最差週表現，而標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克指數在過去三週中都有兩週出現下跌，這是自八月以來的首次出現這種情況。聯準會主席鮑威爾重申，沒有緊急降息的跡象。
市場表現
道瓊工業指數：+222.64 點 (+0.52%) 至 42,801.72。本週下跌：-2.37%
標準普爾 500 指數：+31.68 點 (+0.55%) 至 5,770.20。本週跌幅：-3.10%
那斯達克指數：+126.97 點（+0.70%）至 18,196.22。每週跌幅：-3.45%
原油（4 月期貨）：+0.68 美元（+1.0%）至每桶 67.04 美元。每週跌幅：-3.9%
黃金（4 月期貨）：+19.50 美元（+0.7%）至每盎司 2,920.16 美元
比特幣：-2,784.67 美元（-3.04%）至 86,487.16 美元
科技類股表現：漲跌互現，跌幅較大 「科技七姊妹」週五漲跌互現，部分股票試圖從一週的大幅下跌中恢復：
Nvidia (NVDA): +1.92% Friday, -9.79% weekly
Apple (AAPL): +1.59% Friday, -1.15% weekly
Google (GOOGL): +0.88% Friday, +2.10% weekly
Tesla (TSLA): -0.3% Friday, -10.35% weekly
Meta (META): -0.36% Friday, -6.37% weekly
Amazon (AMZN): -0.72% Friday, -6.14% weekly
Microsoft (MSFT): -0.9% Friday, -0.93% weekly
由於內部對該技術準備的擔憂，蘋果將 Siri AI 升級推遲到 2026 年。
半導體產業表現出韌性 儘管半導體產業整週都面臨壓力，但晶片股週五出現反彈。費城半導體指數收盤上漲 3.16%，但週末下跌 2.88%。
博通 (AVGO)：週五上漲 8.64%，此前公佈了強勁的第二季度業績指引 Marvell Technology (MRVL)：週五下跌 1.99% Wolfspeed (WOLF)：週五上漲 18.06%，此前公佈了第三季度業績指引，並宣布裁員以 4%，中國股市和全球市場上漲.93%。
蔚來汽車 (NIO)：+5.42% 小鵬汽車 (XPEV)：+6.16% 理想汽車 (LI)：+5.30% 嗶哩嗶哩 (BILI)：+8.17% Zeekr (ZK)：+4.5% 百度 (BILI)：+8.17% Zeekr (ZK)：+4.5% 百度 (BIDU)：+1.51%農就業報告顯示，2 月份就業崗位增加 15.1 萬個，低於預期，失業率升至 4.1%，為 2023 年 11 月以來的最高水平。
鮑威爾暗示，儘管市場預期2024年聯準會將降息75個基點，但不會倉促降息。不過，美元指數仍遭遇兩年來最大單週跌幅。
地緣政治和貿易政策發展 關稅和地緣政治緊張局勢進一步影響投資者情緒： 川普政府考慮對俄羅斯實施重大製裁，導致歐洲能源市場飆升。
對加拿大木材和乳製品徵收新的關稅導致加拿大股票和貨幣下跌。
標準普爾500指數下跌了3.1％，這是自2024年9月以來的最大每週下降。 +0.70％0.70％0.70％ - +0.70％ ，-3.27％的每週羅素2000年： +0.43％星期五，-4.05％每週VIX指數：-6.03％星期五， +19.05％的每週部門ETF績效部門ETF％，203%，週五的結果，636%，606% .71％ETF： +1.71％Francial etf：-07％7％：-0％0.0％：-0％：-0％：-0％：-0％：-0％：-0.53％：-0.53％：-0.53％：-0.53％：-0.53-0.3-0.53%：0. 26％的每週技術ETF：-3.10％的每週投資研究和戰略見解納斯達克計劃在獲得監管機構批准後，在CBOE Global Markets and New York Markets and New York Stock Exchange採取了類似的行動後，在2026年末獲得24小時交易。
2 月對沖基金遭受重大損失，Millennium 和 Citadel Investments 等主要參與者均出現負收益。醫療保健和科技股的過度交易是導致股價下跌的原因之一。
Jain Global：-1% Millennium：-1.3% Citadel Investments：-1.7% PivotalPath 多策略基金指數：+0.2%
美國 10 年期公債 4.5 月 487.5 個動態公司下跌 10 年基債 4.位數 114 美元，隨後反彈 2%，但仍處於明顯低位，市值較高峰已縮水逾 1 兆美元。博通成為投資人青睞的對象，股價上漲 8.6%。同時，特斯拉的連續下跌已延續至七週。
零售巨頭好市多（Costco）的最新財報令人失望，下跌6.1%，沃爾瑪（Walmart）緊追在後，下跌3%。禮來公司的股價也下跌了近 5%。
經濟指標和聯準會政策 美國勞工統計局報告稱，2 月非農就業人數增加 151,000 人，低於預期的 16 萬人。此前，1 月的數據被下調至 125,000。政府部門裁員總數達 1 萬人，零售業裁員 6,000 人。醫療保健行業引領就業成長，增加了 52,000 個職位。
失業率從4.0%升至4.1%，略高於市場預期。失業人數增加20.3萬人，至705萬人；總就業人數減少58.8萬人，至1.63億人。
財政部長耶倫將這些轉變歸因於政府縮減開支的「必要的排毒期」。她承認，拜登時代的經濟擴張很大程度上是由財政刺激推動的，現在經濟必須轉型到更有機的成長。她為川普的經濟政策辯護，稱其是“必要的路線調整”，但否認政府將幹預以支持股市。
白宮經濟顧問凱文·哈塞特反駁了對就業報告的擔憂，他認為經濟不會走向衰退。他強調，政府就業機會的減少與川普縮減聯邦就業、促進私部門製造業發展的政策一致。
比特幣與加密貨幣的發展 川普發布行政命令建立國家加密貨幣儲備後，比特幣急遽下跌。不過，這筆儲備金只包含過去執法行動中扣押的資產，不會涉及額外的政府購買，導致整個市場的加密貨幣低迷。
貿易戰與市場情緒 川普激進的貿易政策持續擾亂市場。在將對墨西哥和加拿大徵收關稅的期限推遲一個月後，美國政府將從 4 月 2 日起對全球鋼鐵和鋁徵收關稅。
華倫·巴菲特先前曾批評川普的關稅策略，稱懲罰性關稅可能引發通貨膨脹並損害消費者利益。有趣的是，波克夏海瑟威最近出售了其在兩隻標準普爾 500 指數 ETF 中的全部持倉，表明其對不可預測的政策環境持謹慎態度。
全球資本流動和市場輪調 美元走弱推動資本外流，這與 2017 年的趨勢如出一轍。
投資策略正在適應這些宏觀經濟變化： 做多德國中型股 (MDAX)：較低的利率、財政刺激和潛在的地緣政治決議可能會推動德國股市上漲。
做空債券代理（UB/WN 做空）：債券發行量即將激增預計這項措施將引發長期資產的拋售壓力。
歐元長期利率波動（6 個月 30 年期付款人互換、3 個月 10 年期跨式選擇權）：財政和地緣政治不確定性的上升可能會加劇歐洲的長期利率波動。
歐元殖利率曲線趨陡（買進2s30s，賣出德國ASW箱體）：市場可能低估了歐洲財政政策變化的影響，這可能會推高長期利率。
做空羅素 2000/做多納斯達克：小型股仍然容易受到金融環境收緊的影響，而大型科技股則表現出更強的韌性。
多頭黃金，空頭美元指數（DXY）：川普的經濟政策有利於美元貶值，這可能進一步推高金價。
大局：重新定價川普時代 川普重返白宮開啟了「政策驅動的市場定價」時代，不可預測的關稅、財政策略和地緣政治策略加劇了市場波動。由於企業不願意進行長期投資，市場波動可能會持續下去。
相較之下，債券市場仍然相對平靜，信用利差幾乎沒有壓力跡象。然而，如果經濟狀況進一步惡化，這種情況可能會迅速改變。鮑威爾的言論表明，聯準會願意等待並評估川普的激進經濟政策，然後再調整利率。
專有投資策略與股票推薦 產業輪動策略：隨著波動性的增加，我們將輪動至防禦性產業，例如消費必需品、醫療保健和公用事業。
技術買入機會：近期科技股的回檔為 Nvidia (NVDA) 和 Broadcom (AVGO) 等人工智慧驅動的半導體股票提供了選擇性買入機會。
股息殖利率策略：隨著債券殖利率預計穩定，強生 (JNJ) 和寶潔 (PG) 等高股息股票將提供具有吸引力的風調整後回報。
長期投資：人工智慧驅動的雲端運算仍然是一個強勁的結構性成長主題，使微軟 (MSFT) 成為核心長期持有股票。
能源曝險：隨著地緣政治風險上升，將埃克森美孚 (XOM) 和雪佛龍 (CVX) 添加到投資組合中可以對沖供應中斷的風險。
市場展望和最終想法 本週凸顯了當前市場環境的脆弱性，波動性上升、地緣政治風險和經濟不確定性推動了股市走勢。展望未來，我們預期聯準會的政策審查將持續、人工智慧領域的主導地位以及技術領導地位將推動市場趨勢。投資人應保持防禦性但又抓住機會的態度，透過優質成長股和防禦性板塊來平衡風險。
市場正在努力應對經濟不確定性、貿易緊張局勢和投資策略轉變等複雜因素。雖然一些投資者看到了歐洲股市和黃金的投資機會，但其他投資者仍然對川普不可預測的政策變化保持警惕。由於關稅、貨幣政策和企業獲利都在不斷變化，交易員和投資者必須應對日益動盪的環境。
三月初，全球股市經歷了一場劇烈的震盪，一掃先前由川普政府關稅政策帶來的樂觀情緒。市場擔憂通膨壓力加劇，可能導致經濟成長放緩，進而引發了大規模的拋售潮。基準標準普爾500指數（^GSPC）和以科技股為主的納斯達克指數（^IXIC）均大幅下跌，抹去了選舉後的漲幅。其中，納斯達克指數在週四正式進入回調區，較12月16日創下的歷史收盤高點20,173.89點下跌了10%。
週五公佈的二月份就業報告顯示，美國經濟新增了151,000個就業崗位，這在一定程度上緩解了市場的緊張情緒。然而，對於股市而言，這仍然是充滿挑戰的一周。標準普爾500指數經歷了自去年九月以來最糟糕的單週表現，顯示出市場對經濟前景的擔憂日益加劇。
儘管市場面臨重大動盪，許多策略師仍然對股市的長期韌性保持樂觀。斯托爾茨弗斯預計，標準普爾500指數在今年年底將達到7,100點，這意味著相較於目前的交易水平，該指數還有約25%的上漲空間。Wedbush全球技術研究主管Dan Ives也強調，“混亂創造機會”，並指出“逢低買入”是長期有效的投資策略。他認為，儘管宏觀經濟環境帶來了不確定性，但這也為投資者提供了買入優質股票的良機。
然而，市場的下滑趨勢也在迅速加劇。標準普爾指數在2月19日創下歷史新高後，連續七個交易日的盤中波動幅度達到了2%。這種程度的波動性在過去一年中僅出現過兩次，一次是在2024年8月，當時經濟學家對增長發出了警告；另一次是在2023年3月，即矽谷銀行倒閉前後。
對估值過高、關稅政策以及經濟成長放緩的擔憂，是導致本週股市大幅下跌的主要原因。納斯達克綜合指數本週收盤下跌3.6%，而標準普爾500指數則創下了自去年九月以來最糟糕的單週表現。
Dan Ives在接受Yahoo Finance採訪時表示，關稅政策增加了市場的不確定性，但並不會改變整體的需求週期。他認為，科技股的牛市並未結束，當前的下跌更多的是提供了買入機會，而非逃離市場的理由。Ives重申了他對“七巨頭”（Mag Seven）股票的信心，包括Nvidia、微軟（MSFT）、Alphabet（GOOGL、GOOG）、亞馬遜（AMZN）和特斯拉（TSLA），以及Palantir（PLTR）和Salesforce（CRM）。
Truist的Keith Lerner最近將股票評級從“有吸引力”下調至“中性”，但仍維持對金融股（XLF）的“有吸引力”展望。Lerner認為，金融股將受益於促進成長的政策、放鬆管制以及併購活動的增加。
花旗集團的Stuart Kaiser也持謹慎樂觀的態度，並強調保持選擇性的重要性。他認為，金融和科技領域的大盤股、優質股票存在投資機會。然而，與其他分析師不同的是，Kaiser尚未買入“七巨頭”股票，他認為這些股票的倉位仍然過於擁擠。
Kaiser建議投資者“持有規模大、安全、優質的股票，同時進行對沖並保持耐心”。他仍然看好銀行股，並建議投資納斯達克等權重指數，以降低在“七巨頭”股票上的集中風險。納斯達克100等權重指數（^NDXE）本週收盤下跌3.3%。
考慮到目前的市場走勢，我們認為市場很可能會在 2025 年上半年出現回調。我們的判斷是，今年上半年標準普爾 500 指數的風險偏向下行。
