投資週記 March 2, 2025 每週市場更新
投資週記 March 2, 2025 每週市場更新
*本網頁屬個人博客，一切言論純粹是表達本人的個人意見或經驗分享，無論在任何情況下，不應被視為投資建議，也不構成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦， 本人亦無法保證部落格內容的真實性和完整性。 讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行求證和分析, 讀者一切的投資決定以及該投資決定引致的收益或損失，概與本人無涉。
Weekly U.S. Stock Market and Global Financial Markets Update
U.S. Stock Market Performance
Major Index Performance
The U.S. stock market faced turbulence in the final week of February, driven by mixed earnings results, macroeconomic concerns, and geopolitical tensions. Despite a late-week rebound, major indices closed February with losses:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Increased by 601.41 points (1.39%) to close at 43,840.91. For February, the Dow declined 1.58%.
S&P 500: Rose 92.93 points (1.59%) to 5,954.50. The index fell 1.43% over the month.
Nasdaq Composite: Advanced 302.86 points (1.63%) to 18,847.28. The Nasdaq experienced a monthly drop of nearly 4%, marking its largest decline since April 2024.
Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index climbed 1.09% but fell 5.45% in February, underperforming larger-cap stocks.
The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index), a measure of market fear, spiked to 22.40 before retreating, reflecting heightened market uncertainty.
Sector and ETF Performance
Broad-based gains across sectors helped limit the overall monthly decline:
Technology and Semiconductor Stocks: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded 1.71% but lost 4.97% in February. Nvidia, which initially fell on earnings news, ended the week up 3.87%.
Financials: Banks and financials rebounded, with the Financials ETF (XLF) rising 2.05%.
Energy and Commodities: Oil and gold saw volatile movements, with WTI crude oil experiencing its largest monthly drop in five months.
AI and Growth Stocks: AI-related stocks like SoundHound AI surged 17.48% on strong earnings guidance, while Dell Technologies dropped 4.7% after mixed results.
Chinese Stocks: The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped 1.82% on the day but ended February 8.76% higher, driven by a rebound in major Chinese tech stocks.
Key Economic Indicators and Market Drivers
U.S. Inflation and Interest Rates
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, showed core PCE rising at its slowest pace since June 2023, slightly easing inflation concerns.
Consumer Spending declined for the first time in over a year, raising concerns about slowing economic momentum.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projected a 1.5% contraction in Q1 GDP, sharply lower than previous forecasts of 2.3% growth.
Treasury Yields: The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped below 4.0% for the first time in four months, reflecting increased expectations for rate cuts.
Traders are now pricing in a 79.1% probability of a Fed rate cut by June 2024, with two total cuts anticipated by December.
Geopolitical and Political Developments
White House Tensions: Reports of a heated exchange between former President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a White House meeting raised geopolitical concerns. Trump criticized Zelensky’s approach to the war, while their scheduled press conference was canceled.
Tariffs and Trade Policies: Trump unexpectedly announced higher tariffs on Chinese imports, effective March 4, renewing trade war fears. Global trade uncertainty remains high, with the World Trade Policy Uncertainty Index at its highest levels since the 2018-2019 U.S.-China tariff conflict.
European Inflation and Rate Cuts: French inflation dropped to a four-year low, increasing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates by 90 basis points in 2024.
Global Markets Performance
European Markets
The STOXX 600 Index rose 3.27% in February, significantly outperforming the S&P 500.
Germany’s DAX 30 gained 3.77%, while France’s CAC 40 added 2.03%.
UK’s FTSE 100 climbed 1.57%, despite ongoing Brexit-related trade uncertainties.
Asian Markets
Chinese stocks posted strong monthly gains, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rising 7.5% in February, driven by expectations of further government stimulus.
Japanese Yen weakened, following lower-than-expected Tokyo inflation data, reducing near-term rate hike expectations from the Bank of Japan.
Bitcoin tumbled nearly 20% in February, reflecting a broader decline in risk appetite.
Looking Ahead: Key Market Themes
Federal Reserve Policy: Market participants will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress next week for hints on the interest rate path.
Geopolitical Risks: The aftermath of the Trump-Zelensky confrontation and U.S.-China trade tensions could weigh on market sentiment.
Jobs Report and Economic Data: The February jobs report will provide crucial insight into the health of the U.S. labor market and its impact on Fed policy decisions.
Conclusion
The financial markets navigated a volatile February, with the Nasdaq seeing its worst monthly decline in nearly a year. While inflation data offered some relief, economic slowdown fears and geopolitical uncertainties weighed on sentiment. Looking forward, investors will focus on Fed policy signals, geopolitical developments, and key economic indicators to gauge the market’s next moves.
每週美國股市與全球金融市場更新
美國股市表現
主要指數表現
受收益結果好壞參半、宏觀經濟擔憂和地緣政治緊張局勢的影響，美國股市在 2 月最後一周面臨動盪。儘管本週稍晚出現反彈，但主要指數 2 月收盤時仍出現下跌：
標普 500 指數在當月最後一個交易日上漲 1.59%，但 2 月下跌 1.42%。
道瓊工業指數當日上漲 1.39%，但本月下跌 1.58%。
那斯達克指數 2 月反彈 1.63%，但下跌 3.95%，創下 2023 年 4 月以來的最差月度表現。
衡量市場恐慌程度的指數——芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數 (VIX) 飆升至 22.40 後回落，反映出市場不確定性加劇。
產業和 ETF 表現 各行業的普遍上漲有助於限制整體月度跌幅： 科技和半導體股：費城半導體指數 2 月份反彈 1.71%，但下跌 4.97%。英偉達股價最初因獲利消息而下跌，但本週收盤上漲 3.87%。
金融：銀行和金融股反彈，金融 ETF（XLF）上漲 2.05%。
能源與大宗商品：石油和黃金走勢波動，WTI 原油創五個月來最大月跌幅。
人工智慧與成長股：SoundHound AI 等人工智慧相關股票因強勁的獲利預期而飆升 17.48%，而戴爾科技則因業績好壞參半而下跌 4.7%。
中國股票：納斯達克金龍中國指數當日下跌 1.82%，但受中國主要科技股反彈的推動，2 月收盤上漲 8.76%。
關鍵經濟指標和市場驅動因素 美國通膨和利率 聯準會首選的通膨指標——個人消費支出 (PCE) 物價指數顯示，核心 PCE 漲幅為 2023 年 6 月以來的最低水平，略微緩解了通膨擔憂。
消費者支出一年多來首次下降，引發人們對經濟成長放緩的擔憂。
亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行的GDPNow模型預測第一季GDP將縮小1.5%，大幅低於先前預測的成長2.3%。
公債殖利率：2年期美國公債殖利率四個月來首次跌破4.0%，反映降息預期增強。
交易員目前預計聯準會到 2024 年 6 月降息的可能性為 79.1%，預計到 12 月將總共降息兩次。
地緣政治與政治發展 白宮緊張局勢：據報道，前總統唐納德·川普和烏克蘭總統弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基在白宮會晤期間發生激烈爭執，引發了地緣政治擔憂。川普批評了澤連斯基的戰爭方式，原定的記者會被取消。
關稅和貿易政策：川普意外宣布提高中國進口商品的關稅，該決定將於 3 月 4 日起生效，這再次引發人們對貿易戰的擔憂。全球貿易不確定性仍然很高，世界貿易政策不確定性指數達到2018-2019年中美關稅衝突以來的最高水準。
歐洲通膨和降息：法國通膨率降至四年來的最低水平，這增加了人們對歐洲央行 (ECB) 將在 2024 年降息 90 個基點的預期。 。
儘管英國脫歐相關的貿易不確定性仍然存在，但英國富時 100 指數仍上漲了 1.57%。
亞洲市場 中國股市月漲幅強勁，香港恆生指數 2 月上漲 7.5%，受政府進一步刺激措施預期推動。
受東京通膨數據低於預期影響，日圓走弱，降低了日本央行近期升息的預期。
比特幣 2 月下跌近 20%，反映風險偏好普遍下降。
展望未來：關鍵市場主題 聯準會政策：市場參與者將密切關注聯準會主席鮑威爾下週在國會的證詞，以了解利率走勢的線索。
地緣政治風險：川普與澤連斯基衝突以及中美貿易緊張局勢的後果可能會影響市場情緒。
就業報告和經濟數據：二月的就業報告將為了解美國勞動力市場的健康狀況及其對聯準會政策決策的影響提供重要見解。
結論 金融市場經歷了動盪的二月，納斯達克指數遭遇了近一年來最嚴重的月度跌幅。儘管通膨數據帶來了一些緩解，但經濟放緩的擔憂和地緣政治的不確定性打壓了市場人氣。展望未來，投資人將關注聯準會的政策訊號、地緣政治發展和關鍵經濟指標，以判斷市場下一步走勢。
Investment Strategy: Defensive Positioning Amid Market Volatility
Defensive Sectors: Stability Amid Uncertainty
Allocating capital toward defensive sectors is a prudent approach given the current macroeconomic climate, characterized by rising geopolitical risks, inflationary pressures, and potential policy shifts. Here’s how we are positioning within these sectors:
Utilities (XLU, DUK, NEE, AEP)
- Rationale: Utilities offer consistent cash flow, stable dividends, and inelastic demand for services.
- Top Picks:
- NextEra Energy (NEE): Strong renewables portfolio, defensive yield, and long-term growth potential.
- Duke Energy (DUK): Well-regulated earnings, reliable dividend, and expanding clean energy investments.
Consumer Staples (XLP, PG, KO, COST)
- Rationale: Non-cyclical demand, pricing power, and strong brand moats support earnings resilience.
- Top Picks:
- Procter & Gamble (PG): Market-leading brands, pricing power, and consistent dividend growth.
- Costco (COST): Membership model drives sticky revenues, while strong private-label positioning buffers inflation impact.
Healthcare (XLV, UNH, JNJ, MRK, PFE)
- Rationale: Inelastic demand for medical services, secular growth drivers in biotech and pharmaceuticals, and defensive revenue streams.
- Top Picks:
- UnitedHealth Group (UNH): Strong managed care segment and robust cash flows.
- Merck (MRK): Blockbuster oncology drug portfolio and resilient earnings profile.
High-Quality Equities: Resilience Through Strong Fundamentals
Companies with strong balance sheets, high free cash flow generation, and sustainable dividends provide stability in volatile markets.
Dividend Aristocrats & High-Quality Blue Chips
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): AAA credit rating, diversified revenue streams, and a reliable dividend yield.
- Microsoft (MSFT): Market leader in cloud computing (Azure), strong balance sheet, and consistent revenue growth.
- Apple (AAPL): Strong free cash flow, brand strength, and services revenue expansion.
Cash-Rich, Low-Debt Companies
- Alphabet (GOOGL): Strong balance sheet with over $100B in cash, dominant AI positioning, and robust ad revenue streams.
- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B): Defensive financial fortress, diversified business exposure, and superior capital allocation by Buffett.
Portfolio Allocation Strategy
- Defensive Sectors (Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Utilities): 40%
- High-Quality Growth Stocks (Tech, AI, Cloud, Financials): 35%
- Fixed Income (Investment-Grade Bonds, Treasuries): 15%
- Cash/Alternatives (Gold, Commodities, Crypto Hedging): 10%
This allocation aims to balance growth opportunities with capital preservation, ensuring resilience against potential economic headwinds.
投資策略：
市場波動中的防禦性定位 防禦性產業：不確定性中的穩定性 鑑於當前的宏觀經濟環境，地緣政治風險上升、通膨壓力加大以及潛在的政策轉變，向防禦性產業分配資本是一種審慎的做法。以下是我們在這些行業中的定位： 公用事業（XLU、DUK、NEE、AEP） 理由：公用事業提供穩定的現金流、穩定的股息和對服務的彈性需求。
首選： NextEra Energy (NEE)：強大的再生能源組合、防禦性收益率和長期成長潛力。
杜克能源 (DUK)：收益監管良好、股息可靠、清潔能源投資不斷擴大。
消費必需品（XLP、PG、KO、COST） 理由：非週期性需求、定價能力和強大的品牌護城河支持獲利彈性。
首選： 寶潔 (PG)：市場領導品牌、定價能力和持續的股息成長。
好市多 (COST)：會員模式推動固定收入，而強大的自有品牌定位緩衝了通膨的影響。
醫療保健（XLV、UNH、JNJ、MRK、PFE） 理由：醫療服務需求缺乏彈性、生物技術和製藥行業存在長期成長動力、收入來源具有防禦性。
首選： 聯合健康集團 (UNH)：強大的管理式醫療部門和強勁的現金流。
默克公司 (MRK)：暢銷的腫瘤藥物組合和強勁的獲利狀況。
優質股票：透過強勁的基本面實現韌性 擁有強勁資產負債表、高自由現金流產生和可持續股息的公司能夠在動盪的市場中保持穩定。
股息貴族和優質藍籌股 強生 (JNJ)：AAA 信用評級、多元化收入來源和可靠的股息殖利率。
微軟 (MSFT)：雲端運算 (Azure) 市場的領導者，資產負債表強勁，收入持續成長。
蘋果 (AAPL)：強勁的自由現金流、品牌實力和服務收入擴張。
現金充裕、負債較低的公司 Alphabet (GOOGL)：資產負債表強勁，現金超過 1,000 億美元，在 AI 領域佔據主導地位，廣告收入來源強勁。
波克夏海瑟威 (BRK.B)：防禦性金融堡壘、多元化業務曝光以及巴菲特卓越的資本配置。
投資組合配置策略 防禦性產業（醫療保健、消費必需品、公用事業）：40% 優質成長股（科技、人工智慧、雲端、金融）：35% 固定收益（投資等級債券、國債）：15% 現金/替代品（黃金、大宗商品、加密貨幣對沖）：10% 配置旨在平衡成長機會與資本保全風的能力。
Quote:
美銀看空美股三大理由
1. 平均估值已高
該行的分析顯示，美國股票市值與歷史平均水平相差 3.3 個標準差，美股相對於世界其他地區股市的估值差，處於 75 年來的最高水準。
2. 被動投資占比過高
美國銀行的贾里德 · 伍德（Jared Woodard）認為，被動投資是市場集中的主要因素，並指出被動型基金已占據 54% 的市場份額。他警告說，忽視估值和基本面可能會在經濟萎縮時期帶來巨大風險。
3. 新經濟泡沫
伍德指出，標普 500 指數前五大股票目前占該指數的 26.4%。市場集中度很高。此外，標普 500 指數中「新經濟」股票的市值也佔了總市值的 50% 以上，創下了歷史新高。
the indicative sign on NVDA.
他稱，目前美股的動能反轉正變得異常尖銳，「新經濟」股票下跌 50% 以上可能會拖累標普指數下跌 40%。
伍德的預測與華爾街其他主要銀行策略師的觀點一致。摩根士丹利首席投資官 Mike Wilson 去年 12 月就曾表示，標普 500 指數未來十年的回報率將「持平」，高盛首席美國股票策略師 David Kostin 則預計，該指數未來 10 年的年均回報率將只有 3%。
儘管對市場前景的預測悲觀，美國銀行仍提出了一些策略以規避潛在的熊市，包括監控標普 500 指數的等權重指數、投資於優質股票、減少對「科技七雄」股票的風險敞口以及分散持股。
美銀指出，投資者可以考慮投資於一籃子優質股票，但減少「科技七雄」的持倉。美銀表示，一些提供優質股票投資的基金包括：PACER US LARGE CAP CASH COWS GROWTH LEADERS ETF、iShares MSCI USA Quality GARP ETF ，以及 WISDOMTREE U.S. QUALITY GROWTH FUND。
隨著市場對標普 500 指數高度集中程度的關注加劇，少數股票的主導地位引發了對市場健康和穩定性的質疑。美國銀行的警告突顯了這些擔憂，並強調了高度集中的市場所帶來的潛在風險。
美銀建議投資者的組合保持多樣性。美銀全球財富和投資管理投資組合策略主管 Derek Harris 建議，將投資組合中每種持股的權重保持在 15% 以下。
*本網頁屬個人博客，一切言論純粹是表達本人的個人意見或經驗分享，無論在任何情況下，不應被視為投資建議，也不構成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦， 本人亦無法保證部落格內容的真實性和完整性。 讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行求證和分析, 讀者一切的投資決定以及該投資決定引致的收益或損失，概與本人無涉。
