投資週記 2025年7月20日 美國股市摘要

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投資週記 2025年7月20日 美國股市摘要


Disclaimer: The information provided here is intended for general knowledge and informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on your specific financial situation and needs, and after consultation with a qualified financial advisor.

免責聲明：網頁屬個人博客，一切言論純粹是表達本人的個人意見或經驗分享，無論在任何情況下，不應被視為投資建議，也不構成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦， 本人亦無法保證部落格內容的真實性和完整性。 讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行求證和分析, 讀者一切的投資決定以及該投資決定引致的收益或損失，概與本人無涉。

US Stock keeps moving up recently, when the world is under war, geopolitical,  inflation. Is it too high now? God knows, I don't know, risk management is the key for asset management but it is one of many key things I cannot learn from my university study. Below are some ideas:

1. Keep long term investment

2. Focus on good quality companies, growth with the companies, but the stock tickers. 

3. keep study, learning, reading everyday.

20, July, 2025

Below are generated by AI: 

Weekly US Stock Market Report - July 20, 2025

As a top finance and stock investment analyst at Goldman Sachs, I present a comprehensive analysis of the US stock market for the week ending July 18, 2025. This report details key market movements, performance of top technology companies, significant financial news, and the primary drivers behind these changes, including economic data, corporate earnings, and geopolitical events. 

Market Performance

The US stock market delivered a mixed performance for the week ending July 18, 2025, with technology stocks leading gains amid a backdrop of robust economic data and persistent trade uncertainties. Below are the key metrics for the major indices:

  • S&P 500: Closed at 6,296.79 on July 18, up 0.6% for the week. The index hit a new all-time high during the session but closed fractionally lower (-0.01%) on Friday due to late-week tariff concerns (Investopedia, July 18, 2025).

  • Nasdaq Composite: Closed at 20,895.66, up 1.5% for the week, marking its fifth consecutive day of record highs, driven by strong technology sector performance (CNBC, July 18, 2025).

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 44,342.19, essentially unchanged for the week (-0.32% on Friday), reflecting caution in non-tech sectors like industrials and energy (Yahoo Finance).

The technology sector's outperformance, particularly in AI and semiconductors, contrasted with weaker results in energy and industrials, which faced pressure from trade-related uncertainties.

Weekly Index Performance Table

Index

Closing Value (July 18, 2025)

Weekly Change (%)

Friday Change (%)

S&P 500

6,296.79

+0.6

-0.01

Nasdaq Composite

20,895.66

+1.5

+0.05

Dow Jones

44,342.19

~0.0

-0.32

Top Technology Companies

The technology sector was the primary driver of market gains, fueled by strong earnings and strategic developments in AI and semiconductors. Below is an analysis of key technology stocks:

  • Nvidia (NVDA): Closed at $172.41 on July 18, down 0.34% for the day but up significantly for the week after hitting an all-time high of $173.00 on July 17. Nvidia's performance was bolstered by the resumption of H20 AI chip sales to China, reversing earlier losses from a $2.5 billion revenue hit in Q1 due to a temporary ban (MacroTrends; Yahoo Finance, June 26, 2025).

  • Apple (AAPL): Closed at $211.26, up 0.04% on Friday. Despite a modest weekly gain, Apple's stock has underperformed in 2025, down 15% year-to-date, due to concerns about tariff impacts on margins and competitive pressures in the AI space (Yahoo Finance; The Motley Fool, July 18, 2025).

  • Microsoft (MSFT): Closed at $510.15, up 0.02% on Friday. Microsoft's steady performance reflects its leadership in AI and cloud computing, with a 52-week high of $514.64 (Yahoo Finance; MacroTrends).

  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): While specific closing prices were not available, TSMC reported a 60% jump in Q2 profit, driven by strong demand for AI chips, which positively impacted its stock and the broader tech sector.

  • Other Tech Giants: Data for Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Tesla (TSLA) were not fully available in the provided sources. However, these companies likely benefited from the tech sector's momentum, with Alphabet and Amazon facing scrutiny from activist investors and tariff concerns, respectively.

Technology Stocks Performance Table

Company

Ticker

Closing Price (July 18, 2025)

Friday Change (%)

Weekly Performance

Nvidia

NVDA

$172.41

-0.34

Strong gains

Apple

AAPL

$211.26

+0.04

Modest gains

Microsoft

MSFT

$510.15

+0.02

Steady gains

TSMC

TSM

Not available

Not available

Positive (earnings-driven)

Key Finance News

Several financial developments shaped market sentiment this week:

  • Trade Policy Developments: President Trump's push for 15-20% tariffs on EU imports, alongside existing 10% blanket tariffs and higher rates on Chinese goods, created uncertainty. However, the extension of tariff deadlines to August 1 for most global partners, coupled with finalized deals with the UK and Vietnam and a framework agreement with China, provided some relief (CNBC, July 18, 2025).

  • Corporate Earnings: TSMC's 60% Q2 profit increase and Nvidia's China market access were pivotal for the tech sector. PepsiCo's better-than-expected Q2 earnings of $2.12 per share, beating estimates of $2.03, also supported broader market gains (Nasdaq, July 18, 2025).

  • Economic Indicators: June retail sales rose 0.6%, surpassing expectations of 0.2%, and initial jobless claims fell to 221,000 for the week ending July 12, signaling economic resilience (Nasdaq, July 18, 2025).

  • Cryptocurrency Surge: Bitcoin surpassed $120,000, reflecting strong investor interest in digital assets and a broader risk-on sentiment.

  • Activist Investor Activity: Elliott Management's push for changes at Global Payments and Starboard Value's stake in Tripadvisor highlighted activist involvement in driving shareholder value.

Key Drivers Behind Market Changes

Economic Data

  • Retail Sales: The Commerce Department's report of a 0.6% increase in June retail sales, above the expected 0.2%, underscored consumer strength despite inflationary pressures. This bolstered confidence in consumer-driven sectors (Nasdaq, July 18, 2025).

  • Jobless Claims: Initial jobless claims dropped to 221,000, indicating a tight labor market and supporting expectations of steady Federal Reserve policy (Nasdaq, July 18, 2025).

  • Inflation: June inflation data showed an increase from May levels, matching expectations but raising concerns about persistent price pressures, which weighed on the Dow (CNBC, July 15, 2025).

Corporate Earnings

  • Technology Sector: TSMC's robust Q2 earnings and Nvidia's strategic move to resume AI chip sales to China were key catalysts for the Nasdaq's record highs. These developments highlighted the growing importance of AI and semiconductors in driving market performance.

  • Broader Market: Strong earnings from companies like PepsiCo and others exceeded expectations, contributing to the S&P 500's weekly gain. However, mixed bank earnings dragged the Dow lower earlier in the week (CNBC, July 15, 2025).

Geopolitical Events

  • Trade Tensions: President Trump's tariff proposals, including a 35% tariff on Canada and higher rates on the EU, introduced volatility. The extension of tariff deadlines to August 1 and progress on deals with the UK, Vietnam, and China mitigated some concerns but kept markets cautious (Investopedia, July 8, 2025).

  • Global Economic Context: China's economic slowdown and earlier market volatility in April 2025, driven by tariff announcements, continued to influence global sentiment, though US markets showed resilience (Wikipedia, 2025 Stock Market Crash).

Strategic Analysis

The week ending July 18, 2025, underscored the US stock market's ability to navigate complex dynamics. The technology sector's strength, driven by AI and semiconductor demand, positions it as a key growth driver. Nvidia and Microsoft remain attractive for their leadership in AI and cloud computing, while Apple's underperformance suggests caution due to tariff risks and competitive pressures in consumer electronics.

Trade tensions remain a critical risk factor. The August 1 tariff deadline could lead to increased volatility, particularly for trade-sensitive sectors like industrials and energy. However, progress in negotiations with key partners offers hope for stabilization. Investors should monitor EU-US talks closely, as higher tariffs could pressure margins in sectors reliant on global supply chains.

Economic data paints a picture of resilience, with strong consumer spending and a tight labor market supporting growth. However, persistent inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain steady rates, with futures markets indicating two quarter-point cuts by year-end, starting in September (Manulife John Hancock Investments, July 10, 2025).

For premium investors, a balanced approach is recommended:

  • Technology Exposure: Maintain overweight positions in high-quality tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft, given their strong fundamentals and AI-driven growth.

  • Defensive Sectors: Consider allocations to consumer staples, which showed a 2% weekly gain, to hedge against trade-related volatility (CNBC, July 11, 2025).

  • Diversification: Incorporate bonds, such as those tracked by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF, which remained stable amid economic data releases.

  • Cryptocurrency Consideration: The surge in Bitcoin to $120,000 suggests a risk-on environment, but investors should approach digital assets with caution due to their volatility.

Outlook

Looking ahead, the market's trajectory will hinge on several factors:

  • Earnings Season: As earnings season progresses, industrial and tech sector reports will be critical. TSMC and Nvidia have set a positive tone, but weaker results could temper gains.

  • Trade Negotiations: The August 1 tariff deadline and ongoing talks with the EU, India, and Indonesia will shape market sentiment. Resolution or escalation could significantly impact volatility.

  • Economic Indicators: Upcoming data on inflation, PMI, and home sales will provide further clarity on the economy's health and Fed policy direction.

  • Geopolitical Risks: Beyond tariffs, global developments, including China's slowdown and Middle East tensions, could influence risk appetite.

In conclusion, the US stock market demonstrated resilience this week, with technology stocks leading the charge amid strong economic fundamentals and positive earnings. However, trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks warrant a cautious approach. Premium investors should focus on high-growth tech opportunities while maintaining diversification to navigate potential volatility.


 全球重要財經新聞（截至2025年7月20日當週）

貿易緊張局勢升級：川普總統領導下的美國政府提議對來自歐盟和墨西哥的進口產品徵收30%的關稅，並將大多數全球合作夥伴的貿易截止日期延長至8月1日。這帶來了不確定性，由於對美國進口產品徵收10%的全面關稅，以及對來自中國的鋼鐵、鋁和汽車等特定行業的關稅上調，平均關稅稅率已經上升。已宣布與英國、越南達成協議，並與中國達成框架協議，同時與印尼、印度和歐盟的談判仍在繼續。 @Forbesedwardjones.com

比特幣飆升至12萬美元：加密貨幣市場創下新高，比特幣首次突破12萬美元，反映儘管其他市場波動較小，但投資人仍興趣濃厚。 @Reuters

中國經濟放緩：報告強調中國經濟成長放緩，影響全球市場和投資者情緒。 @Reuters

台積電業績強勁：受人工智慧晶片需求推動，台積電第二季獲利成長60%，提振了科技股市場的信心。 @Reuters

英偉達恢復對華人工智慧晶片銷售：英偉達（$NVDA）憑藉其H20人工智慧晶片重新進入中國市場，提振了科技業的正面情緒。

美國經濟指標發布：本周公布的重要數據包括領先經濟指標、採購經理人指數 (PMI) 數據和房屋銷售數據，為了解美國經濟健康狀況提供了參考。 edwardjones.com

美國簽證費新規：赴美旅客需繳納 250 美元的“簽證誠信費”，這可能會影響旅遊和商務旅行成本。 cnbc.com

企業獲利展望：預計標普 500 指數成分股公司獲利在 2025 年將成長 9%，2026 年將成長 14%，儘管存在貿易不確定性，但仍支撐了市場樂觀情緒。 edwardjones.com

石油產業競爭：埃克森美孚和雪佛龍正在爭奪關鍵資產，為能源產業的整合奠定基礎。 reuters.com

全球支付與激進投資者：艾利奧特管理公司正在推動全球支付的變革，以提高股價和價值。 cnbc.com 附註：其他重大全球新聞（例如，像《金傑》這樣的娛樂新聞） （例如，Minj 在《變裝皇后秀》中獲勝或對《神奇四俠》的讚譽）雖然是熱門話題，但與金融無關，因此不在此列出。要查看完整的 20 條新聞列表，需要即時搜尋才能找到非金融領域的全球事件。

華爾街股市概要

標普 500 指數：本週上漲 0.59% 至 0.71%，創歷史新高，今年迄今已上漲超過 7%。

那斯達克指數：受科技板塊強勢推動，上漲 1.31% 至 1.5%。

道瓊工業指數：幾乎持平，上漲 0.03%，反映出非科技類股的漲跌互現。

產業表現：

科技：表現最佳的板塊，受英偉達在中國的晶片銷售和台積電的獲利提振。

能源：表現最差的板塊，可能受到石油市場動態和關稅擔憂的壓力。

工業類股：2025年美國股市領漲，但隨著財報季的臨近，仍面臨考驗。 reuters.com

市場波動：儘管面臨關稅威脅，但市場波動依然溫和，投資人關注企業獲利和貿易動態。

債券：以iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF為代表，債券在經濟數據發布期間表現穩定。 edwardjones.com

主要股票變化

英偉達（$NVDA）：受益於恢復對中國的H20 AI晶片銷售，推動科技板塊上漲，納斯達克指數也表現出色。

亞馬遜 ($AMZN)：傑夫貝佐斯在兩週內拋售了價值 15 億美元的股票，這可能預示著獲利回吐，但並未直接影響本週股價表現。

全球支付 ($GPN)：受到維權投資者 Elliott Management 的壓力，要求其提升股價，顯示可能進行策略調整。

埃克森美孚 ($XOM) 和雪佛龍 ($CVX)：因其對石油產業資產的競爭而備受關注，這對能源產業整合具有重要意義。 reuters.com 註：數據中未詳細列出個股的具體百分比變化，但這些公司因重大進展而被重點關注。

補充說明

關稅擔憂：擬議的關稅（對歐盟/墨西哥徵收 30%，對中國的關稅更高）和正在進行的貿易談判帶來了不確定性，尤其是在汽車、鋼鐵和鋁等行業。 edwardjones.com

加密貨幣市場強勁：以比特幣為首的加密貨幣市值創歷史新高，與穩定但波動較小的股票市場形成鮮明對比。

財報季：隨著財報季臨近，工業和科技板塊備受關注，台積電和英偉達的業績為市場奠定了積極基調。 reuters.com

經濟背景：美國經濟指標（PMI、房屋銷售）和全球貿易狀況對市場走向仍然至關重要。 edwardjones.com


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