投資週記：2026年1月11日 ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS MONTHLY BRIEF

投資週記：2026年1月11日

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS MONTHLY BRIEF

Disclaimer: The information provided here is intended for general knowledge and informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on your specific financial situation and needs, and after consultation with a qualified financial advisor.

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ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS MONTHLY BRIEF

January 2026 — "The Institutional Invasion Begins"

A) Private Market Pulse: Top 3 Unicorns to Watch

The "Private Magnificent 7" are commanding unprecedented attention as secondary market activity surges ahead of what could be the richest IPO vintage since 2021. Here are the category kings:forgeglobal

1. SpaceX — $1.5 Trillion Valuation Target | IPO: Mid-to-Late 2026

Elon Musk has confirmed SpaceX is targeting a mid-to-late 2026 IPO at a staggering $1.5 trillion valuation. This would make it the largest IPO in history, dwarfing even Saudi Aramco. The company provides full-spectrum launch services and operates the Starlink satellite internet ecosystem, positioning it as critical infrastructure for the space economy projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035. Buzz Level: Extreme. Secondary markets show intense institutional demand.news.crunchbase+4

2. Anthropic — $350 Billion Implied Valuation | IPO: 2026-2027

The enterprise AI powerhouse behind Claude is trading at $270 per share on Forge Global as of December 22, 2025, implying a $350 billion valuation. Google (Alphabet) is the second-largest shareholder after Amazon, and has embedded Anthropic deeply into its cloud infrastructure with TPU rental agreements worth billions. Buzz Level: Red-hot. This is the "enterprise moat" play versus OpenAI's consumer focus.tradingkey+1

3. Databricks — $134 Billion Valuation | IPO: 2026

The AI data infrastructure unicorn is "IPO-ready" according to its CEO, who confirmed preparedness in early 2025. With backers including Alphabet, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Salesforce, Databricks is the "picks and shovels" for the AI gold rush. Buzz Level: Strong institutional confidence; this is the "safe" AI infrastructure bet.equityzen+1

B) VC Trend Report: Defense Tech is the New SaaS

"Smart Money is Moving Into Defense Tech & Space Infrastructure"

Venture capital in defense technology reached $28.1 billion as of Q2 2025, already surpassing 2023's full-year total and on pace to exceed 2024. The Pentagon's Replicator initiative is pushing the DoD to procure autonomous systems at scale, while China's military modernization compresses procurement timelines. Former Navy SEALs and DoD officials are now running dedicated defense funds, with Andreessen Horowitz raising $600 million specifically for defense tech.chronograph+2

The Breakout Names: Anduril (autonomous defense systems, part of the "Private Magnificent 7") and Shield AI (raised $240 million at a $5.3 billion valuation in March 2025) are leading the charge. These companies are taking market share from traditional defense primes by offering "venture-scale speed with Pentagon-scale contracts".washingtontechnology+2

The Investment Thesis: Defense tech combines recurring government revenue (low default risk) with venture-scale growth. Palantir and SpaceX have proven the model works.a16z+1

C) Hard Asset & Crypto Update: Bitcoin's Institutional Era

Bitcoin: BUY

Bitcoin is trading near $92,000 as of January 8, 2026, with institutional adoption accelerating. Spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold $191 billion in assets under management, and 68% of institutional investors now hold or plan to hold Bitcoin ETPs. Morgan Stanley and MSCI have integrated crypto exposure into flagship products, while the GENIUS Act (passed in July 2025) provides regulatory clarity for digital assets.fxempire+1

Target: Goldman Sachs and analysts project $150,000-$200,000 by year-end 2026, driven by fiscal conditions reinforcing Bitcoin's store-of-value narrative. Grayscale notes that under 0.5% of US advised wealth is allocated to crypto, implying the adoption curve is still early.forbes+1

Action: Buy via BlackRock's IBIT or Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF for liquid, regulated exposure. Sizing: 2-5% of portfolio.

Uranium & Copper: HOLD with Conviction

Uranium's nuclear renaissance is underpinned by small modular reactor (SMR) technology offering an energy return on investment (EROI) of 180:1 versus renewables' 20:1. Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) returned +40.44% in 2025 and has delivered +509% since inception. Copper demand is projected to double by 2035 for renewable infrastructure, though longer-term concerns about renewable energy inefficiencies temper enthusiasm.cruxinvestor+1

Action: URNM for uranium exposure; maintain existing positions. Copper offers short-term momentum but uranium provides superior long-term fundamentals.cruxinvestor

D) Yield Hunter: Private Credit's 8-10% Sweet Spot

Top Opportunity: Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL) — 11% Yield

BXSL is the top BDC pick for 2026, delivering a 9.49% dividend yield (though recent analysis shows effective yields near 11%) with strong portfolio quality. Blackstone's "farm-to-table" private credit model generated 9.1% weighted average yields on new first-lien investments in Q3 2025, with an average loan-to-value of just 40%.portfolioslab+2

The Case: Private credit yields are expected to trough at 8.0-8.5% in 2026 even after rate cuts, remaining in the upper half of their 12-year range. Fully loaded default rates and non-accrual rates have trended lower in recent quarters, signaling improving borrower fundamentals. Morgan Stanley projects private credit will deliver "attractive returns" as the Fed implements shallow rate cuts through 2026.morganstanley

Alternative: Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) yields 11.09% but has underperformed BXSL on total returns.portfolioslab

Action: Allocate 5-8% of portfolio to BXSL to replace low-yielding cash. This captures the "illiquidity premium" (300+ basis points over public credit) while maintaining senior secured status.

E) The One Alts Trade: Pre-IPO SpaceX Proxy via Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ)

Thesis: Capture the SpaceX IPO "Event Premium" Before It Happens

The Asset: Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) is a closed-end fund providing retail access to late-stage unicorns including SpaceX (5.5% exposure) and OpenAI, alongside other Private Magnificent 7 holdings.destiny+1

Why Now: SpaceX's confirmed $1.5 trillion IPO target for mid-to-late 2026 creates a clear catalyst. DXYZ surged 16% in a single day in December 2025 on SpaceX IPO speculation, and the fund is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating upward momentum. Institutional investors like Invesco recently increased positions by 84.9%.ainvest+2

The Vehicle:

Ticker: DXYZ (NYSE)
Current Price: ~$32.70 (as of December 2025)marketbeat
Structure: Closed-end fund (CEF) with exposure to 30+ late-stage private companies
Liquidity: Publicly traded, daily liquidity

The Risks:

Valuation Risk: CEFs can trade at extreme premiums or discounts to NAV. DXYZ has historically spiked to 1,000% premiums before crashing.ainvest
Concentration Risk: Heavy exposure to space and AI sectors creates correlation risk.
Regulatory Risk: Private company valuations may not translate to public market multiples post-IPO.
Liquidity of Underlying: The fund holds illiquid private stakes; NAV may not reflect true liquidity.

Sizing Recommendation: 2-3% of portfolio (maximum 5% for aggressive allocators). This is a high-conviction, high-volatility play on the "category kings" IPOing in 2026-2027. Use DXYZ as a tactical position to capture the pre-IPO valuation arbitrage on SpaceX and OpenAI.

Exit Strategy: Consider taking profits if/when SpaceX IPOs and DXYZ trades at >30% premium to NAV, or hold through for continued exposure to OpenAI, Databricks, and Stripe IPOs.

F) Future Themes Watchlist: The 5-Year View

1. Space Economy ("The High Frontier")

The space economy is projected to triple to $1.8 trillion by 2035, growing at 9% annually. Key themes include orbital data centers, zero-gravity pharmaceutical manufacturing (Varda Space Industries), and debris removal. Public Proxy: Rocket Lab (RKLB) provides commercial launch services and is positioning as "SpaceX for mid-sized payloads".spaceambition.substack+3

2. Nuclear Fusion & SMRs ("The Infinite Energy Bet")

Small modular reactors (SMRs) offer 180:1 EROI and are attracting massive corporate and government investment. Public Proxy: Cameco (uranium supplier) has delivered 550% returns since 2018.cruxinvestor

3. Longevity & Biohacking ("The $1 Trillion Health Extension Market")

Davos 2026 featured a dedicated Longevity Investors Circle, signaling institutional legitimacy for healthy lifespan extension. Varda Space is reformulating IV drugs into shelf-stable subcutaneous injections using microgravity crystallization. Public Proxy: Watch for biotech IPOs in this space; no clear public leader yet.investinginpassion

This brief reflects market conditions as of January 11, 2026. All recommendations are speculative and subject to illiquidity, valuation, and regulatory risks. Position sizing assumes a 10-20 year investment horizon and high risk tolerance consistent with a growth-oriented Family Office mandate.

AI列出的美國市場長期投資前 10 名股票

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