投資週記 2025年8月22日）華爾街與全球金融市場一週回顧

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投資週記  2025年8月22日）華爾街與全球金融市場一週回顧


Disclaimer: The information provided here is intended for general knowledge and informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on your specific financial situation and needs, and after consultation with a qualified financial advisor.

免責聲明：網頁屬個人博客，一切言論純粹是表達本人的個人意見或經驗分享，無論在任何情況下，不應被視為投資建議，也不構成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦， 本人亦無法保證部落格內容的真實性和完整性。 讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行求證和分析, 讀者一切的投資決定以及該投資決定引致的收益或損失，概與本人無涉。 

華爾街與全球金融市場一週回顧

市場概覽（季後表現）

標普500指數 +0.3%，道瓊指數 +1.5%，那斯達克指數 −0.6%，羅素2000 +3.3%。本週週期性與價值股領漲，而大型科技股相對承壓。

**美債殖利率：**2年期公債收在 3.87%（週降6個基點），10年期公債 3.98%（週降9個基點），殖利率曲線較上週陡峭約11個基點。

**波動：**VIX 收在 14.2，低於上週。

**外匯：**美元指數收在 97.7；美元/日圓 147.6，歐元兌美元 1.166，鮑威爾講話後美元整體走弱。

**大宗商品：**WTI 原油 63.7美元/桶，布倫特 67.7美元/桶，週五大幅回落；黃金 3370美元/盎司，銅 4.45美元/磅。

**加密貨幣：**比特幣約 11.6萬美元，受市場寬慰氛圍推動，週五上漲約4%。


驅動因素


傑克森霍爾年會：鮑威爾釋放寬鬆訊號

鮑威爾表示，若就業市場出現風險，聯準會或最快9月開始降息，同時強調維持獨立性和關注關稅可能帶來的通膨壓力。美債殖利率下行、美元走弱，股市在周五收盤前出現強勁反彈。


美國經濟數據溫和

初請失業金人數升至 23.5萬，續請人數小幅上升，顯示就業市場趨緩但仍未出現大規模裁員。 7月成屋銷售超預期，達 401萬套（年化），季增2.0%。


企業財報

Intuit 公佈第四季營收年增 20%，全年成長 16%，但因 Mailchimp 業務評論及指引複雜，股價波動明顯。 Ross Stores 報告顯示收入穩健。市場焦點轉向下週即將公佈財報的 英偉達，其對AI需求與供給的展望至關重要。


全球經濟脈動

歐元區8月PMI顯示經濟活動達近15個月最高水準；日本7月CPI回落至 3.1%；中國7月零售銷售年比僅增加 3.7%，低於前額。整體來看，歐美成長韌性優於中國，美元在鮑威爾講話後階段性走弱。


投資洞察


政策基調：溫和寬鬆但非轉向。 鮑威爾的表態緩解了市場對過度緊縮的擔憂，但並未承諾快速寬鬆。 2年期與10年期美債殖利率下行，反映市場對「軟著陸」的預期增強。股市風格切換明顯，週期性與金融板塊受益，而大型科技需時間消化。


**資金與部位：**小型股與價值股本週受到資金青睞，若曲線持續陡峭化，銀行股與信用市場可望受益。


**美元回檔：**階段性美元走弱為黃金、銅及部分新興市場貨幣提供支持，但中國消費放緩意味著亞洲市場需要謹慎選擇。


展望與風險


**關鍵數據：**即將公佈的美國PCE、ISM以及8月非農將直接影響9月降息預期。


**企業財報：**英偉達的AI業務指引可能重設科技板塊的領導地位。


**政策風險：**若出現對白宮與聯準會關係的負面解讀，可能引發美元反彈和波動率上升。


管理層思考與策略


當前市場處於政策轉折點前夕：


短期配置：可適度增配小盤與價值板塊，掌握經濟軟著陸與殖利率曲線陡峭化帶來的修復行情。


中期策略：繼續持有高品質成長股，但需等待英偉達財報確認AI產業鏈的成長節奏。


風險對沖：建議保持適度黃金敞口，並考慮透過選擇策略管理科技板塊潛在波動。


下週關鍵在於美國就業與英偉達財報，這將決定市場能否維持近期的「軟著陸 + 溫和寬鬆」交易邏輯。


Advices from AI:

Core Allocation (Anchor 40–45%)

  • Hold/accumulate:

    • MSFT, GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN — maintain as secular compounders; add on dips of 8–12% from current levels.

    • AVGO (Broadcom) — still strong AI infra demand, under-owned vs NVDA; accumulate.

  • Trim/Hold:

    • META — high run-up, slower ad growth in a softening consumer; trim if >30x P/E NTM.

AI & Tech Growth (20–25%)

  • Buy/Add:

    • NVDA — near-term volatility into earnings, but still the AI backbone; add on earnings pullback <15% (entry zone ~$95–100 if correction).

    • PLTR — sticky gov/enterprise AI contracts, accumulate on weakness <20x EV/Sales.

    • SMCI — cyclical AI server play; buy tranches if it pulls back 15–20%.

  • Hold:

    • TSLA — no longer hypergrowth, but energy/storage optionality; keep core, don’t add aggressively now.

Diversified Growth & Innovation (10–15%)

  • Buy:

    • CRWD, PANW, ZS — cybersecurity secular winners, benefitting from AI + enterprise adoption.

    • CELH (Celsius) — consumer growth outlier, resilient brand.

  • Hold:

    • SHOP — steady but not cheap; maintain small position.

Financials & Industrials Tilt (10–12%)

  • Buy/Add:

    • GS, JPM — curve steepening + capital markets activity = tailwind; add now.

    • CME Group — beneficiary of vol/hedging demand; accumulate.

  • Hold:

    • BA (Boeing) — long-cycle aerospace, but execution risk remains; wait for delivery consistency.

Satellite / High-Potential Watchlist (5–8%)

  • Buy opportunistically:

    • ARM Holdings — AI CPU/IP secular growth, add <60x forward EPS.

    • CRWD, SNOW, MDB — high-beta software, add selectively after corrections.

    • Energy tilt (XLE, CVX) — hedge against oil/geopolitical risk.

🎯 Tactical Moves (Next 3–6 Months)

  • Rotate 5–7% from mega-cap tech (META/AMZN overweight) into financials, small-caps (IWM), industrials (CAT, DE) to capture cyclical tailwinds.

  • Use weakness post-NVIDIA earnings to reload NVDA/AI server chain.

  • Maintain 3–5% gold exposure (GLD/physical ETF) as hedge vs policy/geopolitical risk.

  • Optional hedge: Buy protective puts on QQQ (2–3 months, ~10% OTM) if Nasdaq underperforms further.

🚦 Risk Flags

  • NVIDIA miss/guide down → could trigger 15–20% tech correction.

  • Fed miscommunication → USD spikes, equities wobble.

  • China slowdown → spillover into global growth; avoid heavy China ADR exposure.

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